Good Play or Spew?

Barry · #1 02-10-2007, 06:36 AM

15/30 at the Wynn

Decent enough game, highlighted by an Asian couple on either side of me and some of the usual characters in the game. The husband is loose and semilaggy and his wife is very loose (plays 60% of her hands) and is prone to random acts of aggression. She earliar sent Jim Brier for a walk when he turns the nut straight and she called a turn bet by her hubby then 3 bet with TPNK, flush draw, the T4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] when Brier raised and she got there on the river.

Anyway hubby limps,UTG I raise w/ TT, wife calls, as does 1 other.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hubby leads, I call as does wifey, all others fold.

Turn is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], hubby leads, I raise.

HOWMANY · #2 02-10-2007, 07:13 AM

If you don't have the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I muck the flop like my cards have the plague, if you do have it I think I fold a ton anyway. A ton of things have to go right for you to be best here. Yeah, the guy is laggy, but there's still 2 overs and he's allowed to have them. He's just the kind of customer to have an ugly A2o that he'll play spazzily. If you don't have him beat then I'd assume he has some sort of draw, but best case scenario is he's got a pair of 9s only for 5 outs. So if he only has 5 outs then we still have to worry about the two behind us. People love calling raises with JT/QJ hands and getting outkicked when they flop their pairs, unfortunately you don't have the sort of hand to do that with.

Once you get to the turn I'm not sure. All the options sort of suck now. The only players left are the two weirdos, so the chance of being best have increased quite a bit, so I don't like folding as much as I did on the flop. The problem I see is that you've seen the woman do something completely spazzy and unexpected when behind, so I'm almost scared to raise out of fear she'll do it again. However, by not raising we're in the position of not knowing whether the husband is the kind of guy to fire three barrels, plus if he's drawing then are we folding diamonds or straight completing rivers? It would suck to call to the river and fold on the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] if he had QT.

Folding the flop seems by far the easiest way to play this hand, and quite possibly the most profitable. On the turn I almost feel like raising is the worst option because of the example you gave with the woman. Making the pot even bigger and then getting blown off the best hand here would be a catastrophe. Calling down seems sort of weak, but they are loose and aggro and our hand does suck, so seeing what they have cheaply would be nice I guess. I still think folding may be best.

private joker · #3 02-10-2007, 02:19 PM

Feels like a spew to me. Sounds like you're going to have tons of great spots to clobber these fish; why pound away with an underpair here?

James. · #4 02-10-2007, 03:16 PM

i've seen your avatar a million times and just realized what it was actually depicting.

as for the hand, i don't think it's horrible spew(and trust me, i know what spew is [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), but i'm not saying it's good either. i take it semilag can be betting a reasonable number of nonpair hands in this spot. will he just keep firing hoping he gets folds? will he bet hopeless pocket pairs on boards like these?

how aggro pf is semilag? will he raise alot of aces when he plays? if not, a bunch of weak suited(probably nonsuited as well)aces would be in his EP limp range, as well as hands like QJ and JT. i don't really think you'll get anyone to fold a jack in this spot when the board pairs. at least i usually won't do it. you were checking the river if/when called, right?

there may be other benefits to making the play and showing it down(in terms of soliciting excess action from these two), but i think you'll get the action from them anyway given their descriptions. if it's good, you likely had to be there to see it and if that's the case there's no point in me trying to comment since a live read can override alot of this other analysis crap.

Jorge V · #5 02-10-2007, 03:21 PM

I agree with this 100%, I don't understand why good players insist on battling with fish in marginal situations. You will have tons of opportunities to get your money in when you have a stronger holding. Just be patient and wait.

Barry · #6 02-11-2007, 03:56 PM

I guess this is more a "you had to be there hand".

Wifey quickly mucked, he mumbled something unintelligable and then called. River was a blank and it went check/check. He didn't want to show, so I said "Diamonds" he says "Yeah, diamonds and shows Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MHIG.

goofball · #7 02-11-2007, 05:43 PM

The problem is if he's loose we can't take say A5o out of his range. or Jx and we don't beat that. Change teh J toa 9 and I like this play a lot more. I understand if in the moment you can put him pretty squarely on a flush draw and massively discount the other parts of his range but absent that kind of information it's spew

Godson · #8 02-17-2007, 12:29 PM

If you feel that wifey might have a J and will fold to 2 bets, then the play is correct. On the other end of the spectrum, if she is the type to take every hand to the river, and disconcerns the strength of a bet/raise when the A hits, I would not raise here, it is clear she did not have the jack, if she did I think she calls. So it all comes down to ur read on her, and of course the LAG. I'd say 40% spew 60% well play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]