ugh, bottom 2 in SB vs BB - $100 NL

The Student · #1 10-13-2007, 04:42 PM

Okay, besides the fact that I might be an idiot for calling with 5/3o from the SB, sometimes these crap baby cards work out. I have plenty of stats on the villian, but haven't really played that much against him lately. He's a winning player, winning 53% at showdown, and is 14/9/1.8. So I expect him to have a good hand the majority of the time. Given all that, I put him on some kind of a strong K here on the flop, maybe a flush draw once he calls my c/r. Anything else I should be thinking of? How likely is he to have the OESD on the flop here that hits on the turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (7 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($99.55)
BB ($100)
UTG ($41.50)
MP1 ($106.65)
MP2 ($52)
CO ($106.40)
Button ($120.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($24) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BB raises to $89 (All-In), Hero ???

I'm getting 2:1 here, so I can call if he has TPTK or some kind of flush draw - but is he pushing on me with either of those? Is this a fold?

thanks,

ts-

ncboiler · #2 10-13-2007, 04:53 PM

I fold this for two reasons; First, every time I call this type of crap I lose. Secondly 2/2, 5/5, 3/3 are within villians limping range. He either had a huge hand on the flop or turned a huge hand. If he only had TP he would have made this same move on the flop.

The Student · #3 10-13-2007, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this for two reasons; First, every time I call this type of crap I lose. Secondly 2/2, 5/5, 3/3 are within villians limping range. He either had a huge hand on the flop or turned a huge hand. If he only had TP he would have made this same move on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you about the first point - happens to me too [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. But as to him having 3/3 or 5/5 - since I have one of each, his odds are very very low of him having that set. Also, I can't imagine that someone with his stats (VPIP of less than 15) calls my C/R on the flop with an underpair of 2/2.

ts-

ncboiler · #4 10-13-2007, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this for two reasons; First, every time I call this type of crap I lose. Secondly 2/2, 5/5, 3/3 are within villians limping range. He either had a huge hand on the flop or turned a huge hand. If he only had TP he would have made this same move on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you about the first point - happens to me too [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. But as to him having 3/3 or 5/5 - since I have one of each, his odds are very very low of him having that set. Also, I can't imagine that someone with his stats (VPIP of less than 15) calls my C/R on the flop with an underpair of 2/2.

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

His smooth call of your check raise indicates to me a flopped set is even more likely. You have shown strength with a check raise and led the turn yet he still raises. It's not like he is highly Agg either.

Chargers In 07 · #5 10-13-2007, 06:09 PM

Why are you check raising? It seems really bad here since it's a weak and vulnerable made hand on this flop.

The Student · #6 10-13-2007, 06:34 PM

I C/R to take it down now. If the flop came rainbow I would have just bet out for value and not been worried about the turn. But I have found that when I bet out these types of vulnerable 2 pr hands in a MWP on a flop with a flush draw I often get stuck on the turn if the draw hits. The C/R usually gets the opp holding a FD to fold.

If you say I should bet out instead of C/Ring, what do you do if you're called on the flop and a spade hits the turn?

ts-