$10NL River Donkbet/All-in (Easy Fold?)

[Predator314]

No real reads other than I hadn't seen this guy get out of line in the 10 hands or so that I had been at the table.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $9.95
BB: $12
Hero (UTG): $9.85
MP: $13.35
CO: $7.80
BTN: $4.65

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, MP folds, CO calls $0.35, 2 folds, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.95</font>, CO folds, BB calls $0.95

Turn: ($3) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, BB calls $2

River: ($7) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $7</font>, Hero folds?

[Pokey]

Check behind on the turn. You're unlikely to get three streets of value out of a weaker hand, so checking behind saves you money when you're behind (keeps the pot smaller) and makes you more money when you're ahead (Ax calls a river bet after you show weakness to "catch the bluff"). So a line of "bet the flop, check the turn, call or bet the river" is a good one in this situation.

As played, it looks like villain has been slowplaying something unpleasant. Sets are certainly possible, as is AK, A9, A7, or even A6 (waking up with two pair on the river). You're getting better than 2-to-1 odds on your remaining stack, but I just don't like the situation against a total unknown. Had you checked behind on the turn this would be an autocall, breaking off a bluff or an induced "value bet" from a weaker hand. Given that you raised preflop, bet the flop, and bet the turn, you've announced your hand with authority and he doesn't care -- without a read, I let this one go.

[iheartponeez]

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Check behind on the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious if the reason you suggest checking behind here is that it's a dry board, so he's either calling with a pair (which you probably beat) or a monster (which you don't)?

If there were more draws, like 2-suited board, would you recommend charging money on the turn?

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check behind on the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious if the reason you suggest checking behind here is that it's a dry board, so he's either calling with a pair (which you probably beat) or a monster (which you don't)?

If there were more draws, like 2-suited board, would you recommend charging money on the turn?

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If it's a drawy board I'll definitely fire again on a blank turn. If a scare card hits on river I'll check through or consider folding depending on villain if he bets. If no draws come in and I'm OOP I'll check to induce a bluff usually, unless villain is calling station (in which case he could have a weaker ace that'll pay off).

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious if the reason you suggest checking behind here is that it's a dry board, so he's either calling with a pair (which you probably beat) or a monster (which you don't)?


[/ QUOTE ]

There are a few reasons that I recommend checking behind on the turn:

1. The board is dry. Your opponent isn't likely to be drawing to anything, so you're not really worried about giving away a free card. Even a third spade isn't really scary, since it's unlikely villain called the flop with nothing but a backdoor flush draw.

2. The board is dominated by high cards. The odds are that your opponent has something, but is very frightened of the board. A third bet is going to frequently get your opponent to fold with hands that you completely crush -- hands like AT and JJ that have an extremely low chance of catching up on the river. If you bet, you're likely to only get called by hands that are actually beating you, and that's bad news for your EV.

3. You trick your opponent into giving you value on the river. If you check the turn your play looks exactly like a preflop raise that is giving up after c-betting -- a hand like TT that is done, and just needs one more bet to push it away. After the turn check, villain may lead the river with a value bet as thinly as K2, or might choose to bluff with complete air. Either of these gives you more value out of the hands when you're way ahead, since betting against those hands on the turn only gets a fold. Similarly, if villain does check the river he'll be much more inclined to look you up light when you value-bet the river -- hands like 87s figure you're bluffing with air, or hands like KQo figure they've got you, and both smooth-call your river bet hoping to break off a bluff.

4. Your hand is weak. You've got TP2K -- that's nice, but it ain't the nuts. Your hand is flaccid enough that you'd really like some pot control, here. Checking behind on the turn keeps the pot relatively small with a hand that is unlikely to be best if the pot actually gets large.

Not important at $10NL, but of consideration later in your career, is that there are some good metagame considerations in play: you don't want "raise preflop, bet the flop, check the turn" to automatically mean "I have nothing and I'm just waiting to fold." Your more savvy opponents will pick up on that and start bluffing the river very frequently when you show weakness. Occasionally having a good hand will prevent more of those river bluffs, forcing your opponents to play a more straightforward game and letting you respond correctly more often.

[ QUOTE ]

If there were more draws, like 2-suited board, would you recommend charging money on the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because in that case you would still be ahead of villain's range when he calls the flop and turn: when there are more draws on the board, villains will call with draws when your hand is currently best. They'll also play back with hands that beat yours, but that'll be true in any case. The trick is that by adding into your opponent's range all the possible drawing hands, in addition to the monsters that crush you and the mediocre hands that you beat, you have a much better chance of being ahead in the hand even after you get a turn bet called. That's simply not the case in this hand.

[Ender Wiggin]

spot on analysis, great work pokey. no, really.