Sugar Bowl Thoughts

m bozeman · #1 01-02-2007, 05:02 PM

I was just wondering what some of your thoughts on the Notre Dame/ LSU game were. I am ready to place a large wager on Notre Dame +8, and am looking for comments to back that up, or tell me how stupid I might be.

Thanks.

Thremp · #2 01-02-2007, 05:10 PM

Wow a good chunk of money coming in on ND at the last minute. I'd hold off and see how the line moves.

LSU is much better than ND at most positions... Except you'd be solid if Jamarcus plays like Jamarcus.

freewheeler · #3 01-02-2007, 05:11 PM

Consensus on this forum is that LSU are much better and should cover easily. This prolly means smart money is on ND...... Recent line movement suggests the same thing.... I think this is a good game to pass on personally. Hard to predict these bowl games...

Thremp · #4 01-02-2007, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Consensus on this forum is that LSU are much better and should cover easily. This prolly means smart money is on ND...... Recent line movement suggests the same thing.... I think this is a good game to pass on personally. Hard to predict these bowl games...

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Yeah more or less... Hard to imagine many squares doubling down on ND after losing with OK solidly.

m bozeman · #5 01-02-2007, 05:22 PM

The line was -9.5 a few days ago. Lots of action goin to the Irish.

MyTurn2Raise · #6 01-02-2007, 07:44 PM

Irish always get ton of money on them. This game is odd in that the large favorite won't be the public's favorite to put money on. Notre Dame is traditionally a great underdog team. However, SC pounded the Irish in their one underdog setting this year. ND was crushed by both SC and Michigan, while Penn St was crushed by the Irish. It's really a question of whether LSU plays upto 80% or better of their potential. LSU can destroy the Irish since they have both the defense and offense. However, they are poorly coached and manage to pull dumb things from nowhere every third game. ND has a big coaching edge here. On paper, this is a two TD+ win for LSU. But, the game is played on the field and all the intangibles point the Irish way.

iggymcfly · #7 01-02-2007, 07:46 PM

Just on talent, I think LSU's two touchdowns better than the Irish, and the matchups are certainly in their favor. Notre Dame's a pure passing team and is going up against an LSU squad who's biggest strength is pass defense. (Ranked #3 in pass efficiency defense.) LSU's also a passing team, and Notre Dame's biggest weakness is pass defense. (#85 in the nation in that category.) I really don't see any reason why the Irish should be able to keep it close. LSU's my biggest play of the year, and I'd probably bet them as high as -17 if that was the only line that was available.

Thremp · #8 01-02-2007, 07:55 PM

You can probably find -17 for +200 or better tomorrow.

iggymcfly · #9 01-02-2007, 08:08 PM

Yeah, that might be a good idea actually. I sold to +10 on Pinny, but that doesn't really make much of a difference in the price.

MCS · #10 01-03-2007, 12:58 AM

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The line was -9.5 a few days ago. Lots of action goin to the Irish.

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Yeah, I got +10 (-107) yesterday.

Iggy, if you love LSU, why did you bet ND +10? Or do you mean you took LSU -10?