|
|
#11
11-09-2007, 01:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] bet turn call river [/ QUOTE ] I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] wtf not at all. 
|
|
#12
11-09-2007, 01:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I also like the turn check. You're not ahead of his calling range and you're only folding worse. Plus, you could suck out on his set/2pr. [/ QUOTE ] not really true [/ QUOTE ] Enlighten me. Given the previous action, a typical calling range on that board: 2pr, T's, 5's, sets, occasionally JJ-QQ, rarely KK, ?? Better hands that fold: maybe 2pr, diamonds+pair (not better, but would be good to bet against), ??
|
|
#14
11-09-2007, 01:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] bet turn call river [/ QUOTE ] I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] wtf not at all. [/ QUOTE ] interested to hear your explanation here
|
|
#15
11-09-2007, 02:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] bet turn call river [/ QUOTE ] I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] wtf not at all. [/ QUOTE ] interested to hear your explanation here [/ QUOTE ]as am i. not really seeing a hand we beat calling a reasonable turn bet
|
|
#16
11-09-2007, 02:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
any hand that got by that flop was more often than not improved on the turn. All the combo-draws just got there with 2 pair or better. You don't beat much of anything on the turn.
On the river, this is a call simply because you are now ahead of his range enough, but the board does stop us from raising. We beat all of his sets, all of his turned 2 pair. Hands that beat us now, 9T, 56, A5, outside shot at TJ, and some wierd BD FDs
|
|
#17
11-09-2007, 03:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
Hands that beat us now, 9T, 56, A5, outside shot at TJ, and some wierd BD FDs [/ QUOTE ] his range is waaaaay bigger - he's playing 40% of hands dealt remember. re: betting turn How would this not be a bluff? The only hands we might get value from are diamond flush draws that don't include a 5 or a T or overpairs JJ-KK given preflop he has the OP ~1/100 I'd guess and the fd that didn't hit a straight not all that often either - or am I missing something? I was going to c/f this river then the A popped up - I think a raise on teh river might fold out 2pair/1pair hands and rarely a naked 5 perhaps.
|
|
#18
11-09-2007, 04:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
I think there is no merit to raising/betting turn or river here. I definitely call that river bet and am thankful he let me see the showdown for that cheap. I dont think youre ahead here often but probably often enough getting those odds.
|
|
#20
11-09-2007, 06:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] bet turn call river [/ QUOTE ] I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] wtf not at all. [/ QUOTE ] interested to hear your explanation here [/ QUOTE ]as am i. not really seeing a hand we beat calling a reasonable turn bet [/ QUOTE ] I guess a lot of people think checking turn here is standard so I'll try to give some insight as to why betting is superior. 1)Your opponent is a 40/7/2. This guy is a huge station, as a general rule I will make super thin value bets vs them and NEVER 3bet them light/squeeze them light. Don't think your opponent plays any differently postflop when hes preflop stats are horrendous. 2) His calling range is so much wider than straights/2pair. Here is a reasonable range for this guy 5x/10x/Jx/ANY pocket pair except 22-33./2pair type hands/fds. This guy is horrible and will easily call with gut shots like J8 type hands and even pocket 4s. ANY flush draw is calling your turn bet and even higher pocket pairs. That range is > than his straight/2pair calling range. Basically getting one street of value with an overpair against a huge station is giving up a lot if you do it whenever the board gets "scary." 3) You can even bet some rivers profitably but not all of them. Any non diamond river that isn't a J/4/5/10 you can be betting for value.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
