Basic Theory: -Expected Value-

[DickieBets]

I really enjoyed this post and plan on trying it out on my own hands.

In trying to comprehend this, however, I'm wondering in your pocket 2s example. Doesn't you calculation make the assumption that each hand in the range you listed have equal weight ?

What I mean is, I would expect pocket 5s or pocket Js to call 100% of the time, and therefore I'd lose my stack 100% of the time in that case, but I could see A-J or A-Ks rarely calling all-in or at least significantly less than 100 %. Certain players might also fold an overpair quite often, maybe even two pair. In these cases, I wouldn't necessarily win his entire stack.

While it might not matter with a set, I could imagine that when calculating EV with an overpair or possibly 2 pair it might look +EV but actually be -EV in reality?

Am I understanding correctly or am I over complicating it ?