Stars 33/5K...Top Set on River Facing Shove....Barf Again

erc007 · #1 11-06-2007, 04:59 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO (t2265)
Button (t3555)
SB (t2810)
BB (t2855)
Hero (t2780)
UTG+1 (t2795)
MP1 (t2745)
MP2 (t3155)
MP3 (t4000)

No significant reads on villain. He's got a decent ROI in SS MTT's. My thought on the river was to bet/fold, but then I wondered if he would shove hands like 33;AQss for value? I was pretty sure that he wouldn't check a 4 behind on the turn and 55;66;77 will always raise this flop right?

Does the fact that I made a set here really give me any more showdown value/equity vs. his range, or am I still just beating a bluff?

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t120, 4 folds, CO calls t120, 3 folds.

Flop: (t285) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t225, CO calls t225.

Turn: (t735) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (t735) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t335, CO raises to t1920, Hero...?

SixForty · #2 11-06-2007, 05:07 AM

I personally don't think I can get away from this. I think villain's range is much bigger than just a straight.

I still think that lower sets are a big enough portion of his range, not to mention a possible rivered two pair that thinks it is going to get a call from your AK the way you played it.

I call quite happily here.

deepsquat · #3 11-06-2007, 05:09 AM

Im not good enough to fold this river, he could have aces up. Personally, id be betting this turn, im pretty sure the river hasnt changed much here. If you were ahead on the turn, you are ahead mow. WA/WB.

sapsuckah · #4 11-06-2007, 11:14 AM

This is a really easy call. Hands you're beating that could have taken villain's line include (with varying degrees of likelihood) 88, 99, TT, A5, A6, A7, AJ, AQ, AK, plus many bluffing hands (which would see the A as a scare card if you have a pair over 77.

Contrast that against the hands that could have taken villain's line that are beating you: 44.

Sucks if he really did have the 44, but there's no way I'm folding here.

BlueEcho · #5 11-06-2007, 11:28 AM

Sap's range is correct for me too. This is an easy call.

Dunkman · #6 11-06-2007, 12:15 PM

This is a snap-call for me, and I'd be kinda surprised to see a 4, although I guess you never know what kind of crazy [censored] they call with. Could be 98 getting cute I guess, but w/e this is a stupid set or busted flush draw way more.

M1cKmAcK · #7 11-06-2007, 12:28 PM

In a situation such as this, I go through the hand from his perspective and try to see what he put me on. My guess is he has you on a top 5 hand. He's calling on every intention to bluff if a scare card hits. He might even have something like A8, A6, two spades... idk. But I just can't put him on a 4 for the life of me. I mean if it was the BB that called, possibly. If CO calls here with A4, 44, or somethin like 4-5, it's the worst play ever. I think you have to call here. If he does have a 4, just remember... you play poker exactly for this reason. B/c donks really do play this badly. You're calling...

Edit: Most times this is just a blowup.

levAA · #8 11-06-2007, 12:45 PM

easy call - btw i like the bet-check-bet approach to induce a river bluff more than a bet on the turn here.

swede554 · #9 11-08-2007, 04:55 AM

Interesting spot. As you questioned, I think the fact that we rivered a set doesn't really increase our showdown value much vs. his range. I'd imagine villain would raise the flop w/ a set given the drawiness (word?) of the flop, or at least bet the turn. I could see him taking this line w/ 44 though , not wanting to scare you away with a turn bet. That's a possibility. So by the turn we're either ahead or behind (obviously), and I don't think the river changed that, hence our showdown value didn't increase much vs. his range (makes sense?)

However, another thing we should consider is what your hands look like as well. The raise pre, followed by a bet-check-bet ace river looks like AK-AQ, so he could be raising A5-A7 for value if he called you w/ that preflop, but I think that's somewhat unlikely.

All-in-all, yeah we have a set, and that's great and all, but if we're not 100% sure how we're going to respond to a raise if we bet this river, I prefer check-calling. I know this might sound alil weak-tightish, but I kind of like giving villain the opportunity to bluff his busted draws or rep the ace here.