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Old 05-11-2007, 02:19 AM
KotOD KotOD is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Born to lose, destined to fail
Posts: 1,656
Default Probability tests for pokertracker stats

Hi forum. I PM'ed BruceZ asking if this was appropriate and he gave me the affirmative, so here goes. The Zoo needs some expert math help for some debunking or bunking, I guess.

In this thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post10298242
The OP found some strange behavior in some opponents, exploited it, did some digging and then accused the opponents of beings bots based on these numbers

Clickable thumb

The Zoo then tore them apart and noticed the ridiculous similaries in the numbers, especially numbers that would be hard to duplicate between four different players like river bet %.

575/2497 = 0.230276332
216/961 = 0.224765869
538/2403 = 0.223886808
411/1836 = 0.223856209

The main player in these accounts came forward and claimed that the four players were a tightly coached and coordinated team that had a set script and consulted each other on all tough decisions and that's why the numbers were so similar.

Of course the counter was that even with that setup, humans couldn't dulpicate results so closely, especially on postflop play because of all of the variables involved.

So my question is this, working with the numbers in the picture, are there any tests that can be done to draw a conclusion one way or another as to whether the numbers are acutally extremely closely correlated (there is much dispute about the VPIP numbers, less about the river bet % numbers)? If there are, are there any tests that can determine the probability of numbers that bunch like this being created by humans?

If you have any questions, I'll try to help as much as possible.

Thanks
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