Flopped a str8 but flop is suited

[SixForty]

Preflop: In a loose/passive game, in such late position, I'll often raise KTs here. It has enough value to raise with, and you can often get to see the turn for free when you otherwise may not.

Flop: It's a tough situation with this many people in. Statistically, you can expect at least one of your opponents to have a club here effectively about 95% of the time. (It's not 100%, but it's close enough that I'd guess a real high estimate - if you do the math, it turns out to be close to 93%)

So basically, if another club comes, I'd plan to fold. But with that said, I'm only behind to a flush, so I'm not folding yet.

This is a flop that a lot of hands can play pretty fast. Any hand that has the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] should be betting or raising, especially if it has a paired side card. A9o with the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] should even be betting or raising.

Also, there's a few possible two pair hands out there that may play it fast and can fill up to beat us. And there's likely to be at least one K or T out there (possibly one of each) that gives others a split pot with us.

So when I look at it here, I get the feeling that the turn card can greatly change our equity in the pot. Any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is worthy of a fold. A K or T is worthy of playing very slowly. And pairing the board could also be very scary.

I think this is one of the times where I would call the flop here, even if it goes 3-bets or gets capped, since I can still be ahead of a lot of capping hands. But I would just call and not 3-bet now, hoping to keep the pot small. I would then plan to bet or raise any safe turn card. If it is two bets to me on any turn card, I'd fold. I would also fold to any reraise after my bet or raise.

If the turn is any A, K, Q, J, or T, well, then I'm walking very carefully!

I guess this just strikes me as a good spot to forego the likely small equity raise now to take advantage of a bigger equity raise later. Especially since our hand can't get any better, but can get a lot worse.

But that's just my first impression - I could very well be wrong on that! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[micky_d]

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I guess this just strikes me as a good spot to forego the likely small equity raise now to take advantage of a bigger equity raise later. Especially since our hand can't get any better, but can get a lot worse.


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Exactly. Your unlikely to be behind on the flop, but someone is almost certainly drawing to a 1 card flush. You have enough callers that you can make a value raise as your pot equity will be more than the 16.6% share with 6 players seeing the turn. But...

If you wait for the turn, and a safe card comes, your pot equity just doubled. Whoever bet the flop is going to bet again because you only called the flop, and you can raise to trap the callers for 2 bets. If you get reraised you could be against a flush, or it could simply be someone with the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pushing his edge with his draws, or someone who flopped 2 pair or a set if they are very loose. Call and see the river.

If your'e not reraised you are most likely ahead, just hope for the safe river card (which you will get 80% of the time).

If it's raised on your right again despite the safe card, you may be in trouble, and a fold to 2 bets might be forgivable. I think a call would still be a must though as the pot is huge and there is too much chance the betters are on draws and just betting for value.

Folding the best hand (which odds dictate you probably have) in this pot would be a tragedy, paying off the flopped flush for a couple more bets is not.

Call the flop bet and push your'e huge edge on the safe turn card, fold to a club.

Edit: With the better and 3 callers (before the raise) on the flop there's likely already a few single club hands, more evidence for me that the bets/raises are for big draws. I think you would show a very nice long term profit from this hand.

[TommyO]

That's a very good point. If I 3 bet the flop, there's no way I'm getting 2 bets in on the turn.

[Jiggymike]

I'm a little torn with what to do on this hand. Preflop, I don't think I raise with K10s even in that good position, but its probably one of those hands where it does'nt make a significant difference either way. When the raised flop bet comes to you, there are 13 bets in the pot...if you raise you are giving around 5 to 1, if you call you are giving around 7.5 to 1. Neither way allows gutshots to call profitably and you are getting all kinds of dead money from lone pairs and low clubs. If you call you might let more weak draws in but you also give yourself more ways to lose the pot. Since it is pretty big, I think I raise and hope to knock out a couple of hands to increase my equity, even if it is minimal.

[imashyboi]

I raise it here. Most likely anyone with a straight, pair, flush draw will call here. You have the best hand now if no one flopped a flush.

[killercal]

I would 3 bet here to make people pay for their draws. If it gets capped, then just check call it down from here, unless another club hits the board, then just fold.