Colts +125 moneyline : NFL week 8

Dementia · #1 10-23-2006, 06:03 PM

Colts vs Broncos. The Colts are +2 and the moneyline is +125. I understand the Broncos defense is quite good and they can run the ball, but is this too much hype? Does anyone expect the Colts to lose this game enough to make the moneyline bet -EV, and has anyone jumped on this yet?

rjp · #2 10-23-2006, 06:45 PM

I jumped on Denver -1 (-124). The Colts lose plenty often enough to make +125 a bad bet.

Dementia · #3 10-24-2006, 04:25 PM

I do think Denver is going to be able to pound the ball down the field, but this is a game that their defense is going to be the deciding factor in. The Colts shouldn't still be undefeated but hands down are the most explosive offense in football. If they can move the ball successfully I think they'll leave mile high with the win.

TNAchicago · #4 10-24-2006, 07:12 PM

I like the Colts - just haven't decided if I'm taking the points or ML yet.

Am I the only one not that impressed with Denver this year?They've played one very good game (win at Patriots), but it's worth noting that it was at the height of the Patriots issue with Deion Branch (stay/go), and their offense wasn't really in sync yet.

I think it's too simple to say "Colts can't stop the run, Broncos run all day, bet Broncos". I expect the Colts to really move the ball on Denver (they looked drastically different with their timing vs Washington this week) - and pressure DEN to put up points on their own. Realistically, this game probably looks like a playoff game - and comes down to who screws themselves over on turnovers more. Plummer's been awful and getting worse the last few games - his mistakes just haven't been game critical - I think he's due to really F one up. Indy's rush D went from horrendous to OK vs Skins last week, the Booger McFarland addition is probably underrated.

Also, weather in DEN will be non-issue. 62 & sunny expected.

I like the Colts. And if they win the turnover war, I could see them winning this by double-digits, even.

CharlieDontSurf · #5 10-24-2006, 08:24 PM

I don't see the Colts moving the ball at will.
They won't have much of a run game and Denvers pass D is the best they've had in years. Elvis has been rushing the passer very well...

The two key reasons why Colts aren't likely to win is they suck at stopping the run and thus will HAVE to overcompensate for Bell thus being in trouble on bootlegs and Den is at home. Bells ran well against Balt..he's gonna run well if not great against Indy
Den rarely loses at home.

Plummer is the danger factor for betting Den

atincup · #6 10-24-2006, 10:18 PM

Its all about the running game. Denver rushes the ball very well and their run defense is awesome.

Add in the fact they are at home = Denver by 6