I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 NL

[The Student]

I have stats on the villian but don't really remember playing with him before (they're probably idleminer stats). The villian is 12/7/3.5 and raises CBs 20% of the time. I have trouble giving him credit for the flush or a Q when he C/Rs the turn, so the river doesn't make me think his hand has improved. How often is he bluffing here with a lone spade or straight draw? I'm getting $81:$31 pot odds, so as long as I'm beating him 30% of the time or so, it's a good call.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($104.35)
MP2 ($127.85)
MP3 ($114.25)
Hero ($180.85)
Button ($106.35)
SB ($99)
BB ($87.50)
UTG ($285.45)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($8) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls $16.

River: ($50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $31</font>, Hero ???

Should I call here? Am I totally off to think this might be a bluff more than 30% of the time?

ts-

[rdrr]

Fold the turn?... but
[ QUOTE ]
I have trouble giving him credit for the flush or a Q when he C/Rs the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
If you say so... you have to call river now.

[Split Suit]

interesting. whats ur image?

assumin nothing special about ur image, he should only have a flush or nothing right here. nothing logically checks the turn here other than that. i might station and call here.

[pureCra2z]

[ QUOTE ]

If you say so... you have to call river now.

[/ QUOTE ]

[toymach776]

I think you have to fold on the turn. I dont see much that you beat and if you call you are faced with a difficult river decision if he bets. Has villain gotten out of line on turn or river at all? just curious, as it still looks like a turn fold to me either way. As played river is a call only if you are fairly certain of your read. How sure are you with making the call?

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting. whats ur image?

assumin nothing special about ur image, he should only have a flush or nothing right here. nothing logically checks the turn here other than that. i might station and call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if he has other stats on me, but so far I'm 19/9/1.2 at the table and CBing about 75% of the time. I haven't played any big hands so far at the table.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
How sure are you with making the call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well's that the real question, right? Here's what I'm thinking: he's a TAG who likes to raise CBs 20% of the time. He sees a LP PFR from me (who's 19/9 so far at the table), so he doesn't have to give me credit for a real hand. We both check the Q-hi flop. He might be thinking that if I had a flush draw or a made hand I would have bet it, so I probably have nothing yet. The turn brings the flush but he's not worried about that because I would have already bet my FD on the flop. So how often is he C/Ring my turn with air (or a single spade) thinking that I'll fold it because I don't have a hand either? More than 30% of the time I think. But is his river bet just a second barrel?

Assuming villian is a TAG, what's his line with a Q? He might try a C/R on the flop, but once I check behind on the flop he probably fires the turn to avoid giving me a free card with 3 spades out there already. He might have also just bet out on the flop with a Q. So there are two reasons for me to doubt that he has a Q.

I also don't think many TAGs C/R the turn with the made flush and then bet the paired river because there isn't much value in it. If he does have the flush there aren't too many hands that can flat call his river bet that he beats - so I think a made flush is more likely to check-call the river to entice a bluff.

So then it comes down to whether or not he has something like a 10 or J/J or total air. Does he have air more than 30% of the time? Perhaps I'm giving him way too much credit for multiple level thinking for the average $100NL player, not sure.

ts-

[BlueBear]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I'm giving him way too much credit for multiple level thinking for the average $100NL player, not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are definitely overthinking this and are giving them too much credit, fold turn.

[ASPoker8]

if u call turn call river too

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
if u call turn call river too

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i think i have to go with it all the way since the river doesn't really change my analysis of the hand.