chuck liddel VS wanderlei silva, who wins and how will the line open?

[MikeyPatriot]

Filho isn't going to train Chuck. He made some crazy statement like "I would never train an American against a Brazilian, I am no prostitute."

I just don't think Chuck has the physical tools to sit back and try to counter punch, especially against someone as quick and aggressive as Wanderlei. The power's still going to be there more or less, but I don't think Chuck has the speed or quick reactions to KO Wanderlei.

Also, when has Chuck ever fought someone with the skillset of Wanderlei? The last person even remotely close is Vitor Belfort, that was 5 years ago, and I don't really even think that's a great comparison. Chuck's been able to dominate the UFC LHW division the past 3 years because he's fought wrestlers and he's been able to nullify their takedowns and make them standup with him. Here's who's he beat since his first lost to Rampage:

Tito Ortiz x2
Vernon White
Randy Couture x2
Jeremy Horn
Renato Sobral

You've got 2 wrestlers, 2 jiu-jitsu guys, and 1 awful fighter.

Meanwhile he just lost a fight to KEITH JARDINE and got KO'd by Quinton. And you can go back to 2003 where Quinton stood up with him and beat his ass for 15 minutes. That's probably the best example about how this fight could go, IMO.

I also believe this fight means more to Wanderlei than it does to Chuck.

As always, there are a lot of variables coming into this fight. Is Wandy coming off the juice? He did get tested for his fight in February, and came up clean. Is he going to have any trouble becoming re-acclimated to the cage? Is he over the trauma of being brutally knocked out? Is Chuck going to come in shape? How will Chuck handle someone with the skillset of Wanderlei? Has Chuck really lost a step, or have you just seen the losing side of variance?

[igetbadbeat]

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what does EV stand for?

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Expected value.

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Pretty sure it stands for EVEN in this case. +100

[steelbase]

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what does EV stand for?

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Expected value.

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Pretty sure it stands for EVEN in this case. +100

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Ah, missed that he was asking in response to your post. Yes, you are correct EV = +100

[moayer]

unless chuck is considering a more flexible strategy, more than just waiting for a counter, he doesn't have a chance at winning this one. he stood in front of jardine and got kicked to death. either his corner did not have an answer for this or he was being stubborn.

correct me if i am wrong, hasn't he been training with the same dude for years? if true maybe it is time for a change in trainers/preperation for fights.

[seat_empty]

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unless chuck is considering a more flexible strategy, more than just waiting for a counter, he doesn't have a chance at winning this one. he stood in front of jardine and got kicked to death. either his corner did not have an answer for this or he was being stubborn.

correct me if i am wrong, hasn't he been training with the same dude for years? if true maybe it is time for a change in trainers/preperation for fights.

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chuck has actually said that he trains EXACTLY the same for every fight. Doesn't change a thing from one opponent to the next. Not even his gameplan heading into the fight.

it was fine when he was fighting a bunch of grapplers back to back to back to back, but as soon as he had a couple 'strikers' put in front of him, he crumbled.

The only thing keeping me from putting a large bet on wandy is the fact that this is his first fight back in the ufc. A lot of the pride guys have been having a hard time making the transition, and wandy is rumored to have been on steroids when he fought in japan. Just rumors, but still.. looking at the performances of some of the other pride guys coming to the ufc, i can't help but wonder. On the other hand, wandy has actually fought in the UFC, albeit 7 years ago. so /shrug~

i wish the ufc had given wandy a tune-up fight before chuck, but i still think silva is a damn good bet as any kind of an underdog.

[mingorama]

I'm not sure why everyone is so high on Liddell. He's looked horrible in his last few fights... out of shape, unaggressive.... looked every bit his age. I just haven't seen much of Silva since 2005, so I'm hesitant to bet... but I'd go on the Silva side.

[Murphinator]

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i wish the ufc had given wandy a tune-up fight before chuck, but i still think silva is a damn good bet as any kind of an underdog.

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It's a win win for the UFC. If Chuck wins then their golden boy is back, if Wandy loses then they'll probably give Wandy a title shot and be able to hype that up easily.

In fact I think they'd prefer Wandy to win now that I look at it that way.

As far as who I'm betting on, I'll have a couple units on Wandy.

[seat_empty]

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i wish the ufc had given wandy a tune-up fight before chuck, but i still think silva is a damn good bet as any kind of an underdog.

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It's a win win for the UFC. If Chuck wins then their golden boy is back, if Wandy loses then they'll probably give Wandy a title shot and be able to hype that up easily.

In fact I think they'd prefer Wandy to win now that I look at it that way.

As far as who I'm betting on, I'll have a couple units on Wandy.

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well yea i understand why ufc did it. Just saying you'd be able to tell a great deal about how wandy's doing physically even if he just got fed some newb.

But then the line would probably have ended up with wandy being -160. So i guess it doesn't really matter :>