Favorites 8-0 early, Will we see regression to the mean?

Donk4Life · #1 03-15-2007, 06:38 PM

There must be some good underdogs coming up for the second half. I was only sunk by one today (Texas Tech). Who are we looking at for the evening games?

MegaFossil · #2 03-15-2007, 06:39 PM

LOL, yes there will be regression to the mean. Pretty hard not to when you're at 100%.

Amerzel · #3 03-15-2007, 06:43 PM

The only underdog that I am looking to bet is the Zags over Indiana, other then that I am sticking with the favorites on Duke -6.5, Michigan St. -2.5, Pittsburgh(my big bet) -10, and i am going against all the pros and taking Xavier -2, just think that they are too athletic and that will take the win in this evenly matched game.

Donk4Life · #4 03-15-2007, 06:55 PM

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LOL, yes there will be regression to the mean. Pretty hard not to when you're at 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, stranger things have happened. I see a lot of bookmakers flinging themselves from tall buildings if favorites keep covering. That reminds me, I know a lot of people who are undefeated in their brackets who are very proud of that fact today. Anyway, here are my picks for tonight.

VCU +6.5. I think Duke is a good team, but not near as good as they have been in the past. This is a good number to get against a "name" team like Duke who hasn't performed up to par this year when faced with good competition. VCU has played most teams tough this year and won't let up against the Dukies.

Michigan State -2. Despite beating Pittsburgh at home without Jerel McNeal, I think this will hurt Marquette badly. The team was hopeful he would be able to return, but we see where its headed. Michigan State should be ready to play some lesser competition. Playing outside the Big 10 should be a relief, but the Big East went 2-0 earlier today. I'm still playing the Spartans.

MicroBob · #5 03-15-2007, 08:52 PM

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I see a lot of bookmakers flinging themselves from tall buildings if favorites keep covering.

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why?

Donk4Life · #6 03-15-2007, 09:13 PM

Squares typically hit faves hard (like myself), because they don't understand value like the sharps. At least, that's the conventional wisdom.

Donk4Life · #7 03-15-2007, 09:51 PM

I'm going with

Wright St. +11. I think any team that beats Butler twice will be able to hang with Pitt.

Homer · #8 03-15-2007, 08:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
LOL, yes there will be regression to the mean. Pretty hard not to when you're at 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true (not just true, very true).

That being said, I'm wondering whether OP understands what "regression to the mean" is.

MyTurn2Raise · #9 03-15-2007, 06:55 PM

the previous games should have no effect on the outcomes of the future ones

reversion to the mean will happen if the previously expected performance takes place

Donk4Life · #10 03-15-2007, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the previous games should have no effect on the outcomes of the future ones

reversion to the mean will happen if the previously expected performance takes place

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree one event generally has no effect on the other. However, couldn't this signal the effect of correct seeding of the tournament instead of mistakes being made in the past? I'm just throwing that out there, I really have no idea what I'm talking about.