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#1
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
Bankers offer is always -EV.
The time to deal is only really when the amount becomes significant to you. How does that paradigm (3 doors, pick 1, shown one of the ones thats a booby prize, switch, etc) work here? If you are left with $20,000 and $50,000 there was a 1/20 chance you picked the $20,000 and so 19/20 chance that its in the other box.....likwise with numbers reversed. Do you switch? Or does this not apply here because it wasn't a win/lose situation? |
#2
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV. The time to deal is only really when the amount becomes significant to you. How does that paradigm (3 doors, pick 1, shown one of the ones thats a booby prize, switch, etc) work here? [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't--the short reason is the doors/cases aren't chosen in the same way (or more exactly, with the same information) [ QUOTE ] If you are left with $20,000 and $50,000 there was a 1/20 chance you picked the $20,000 and so 19/20 chance that its in the other box.....likwise with numbers reversed. Do you switch? Or does this not apply here because it wasn't a win/lose situation? [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't apply because the chance that either case holds the $20,000 or the other one is 50/50. (assuming just two cases left). This has been discussed before--use search if you want to find the reasoning. Shane |
#3
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV. [/ QUOTE ] Untrue |
#4
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV. [/ QUOTE ] seen several UK episodes where this is not true |
#5
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
Banker's offer in the US can also be +EV. I saw a show last week with $750k and $10 remaining, the offer was $400k.
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#6
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
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Banker's offer in the US can also be +EV. I saw a show last week with $750k and $10 remaining, the offer was $400k. [/ QUOTE ] this is stupid i know but there is a slot machine in the U.K i was in the pub last night playing deal or no deal slot. i got on the board and got down to the final two boxes £10 and mega streak (mega streak pays about £80) the banker offered me £25, i think that offer is -ev so being the prick i was i didn't take it and the box was £10 my conclusion bankers offer is -ev |
#7
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
This show eveolves around 'relative risk'...
blah blah blah. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Bankers offer is always -EV. [/ QUOTE ] seen several UK episodes where this is not true [/ QUOTE ]\ Also Australian, its like the Bank doesn't want to risk losing 200k i.e 'insurance' or something. JT |
#8
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
There are more episodes filmed than are aired. Contestants agree prior to the show that if their episode is not aired they don't get paid. Getting a good offer early on and accepting isn't going to get you any TV time.
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#9
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
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There are more episodes filmed than are aired. Contestants agree prior to the show that if their episode is not aired they don't get paid. Getting a good offer early on and accepting isn't going to get you any TV time. [/ QUOTE ] false |
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