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#1
11-14-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
If you bet fold the river, how many times can you do this at the same table before the other players notice and start bluffing at you? Aren't you concerned this will make you an easy mark?
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#3
11-14-2007, 01:29 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
but when you have the best hand you would also bet. how can your opponent figure out what you are holding at a given point of time then? [/ QUOTE ] I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions. He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river. Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand.
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#4
11-14-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions. He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river. Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand. [/ QUOTE ] This is all fine except that you're giving your opponent way too much credit. Villain is already known to be an donkey because only donkeys call three cold on the flop. It follows from this that villain wasn't spending a lot of time deducing that you must have a made hand by the river. He was just thinking about whatever it is donkeys think about during the hand, which probably involves little cartoon figures dancing around in a thought bubble or something. On the river, you checked to him and he interrupted his donkey-dreams to think "I have an ace + there's an ace on board = bet." Or "maybe he'll fold if I bet my 66." And he ended up being right because you out-thought yourself. Most villains aren't very good poker players. Villains who call three cold on the flop definitely aren't very good poker players. Inferrences that you draw on their behavior that are based on an assumption that your opponent plays like you do will very often be wrong, and they'll very often cost you money. In this case, I'd say there's about a 60% chance that you folded the best hand.
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#5
11-14-2007, 02:12 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
This is all fine except that you're giving your opponent way too much credit. Villain is already known to be an donkey because only donkeys call three cold on the flop. It follows from this that villain wasn't spending a lot of time deducing that you must have a made hand by the river. He was just thinking about whatever it is donkeys think about during the hand, which probably involves little cartoon figures dancing around in a thought bubble or something. On the river, you checked to him and he interrupted his donkey-dreams to think "I have an ace + there's an ace on board = bet." Or "maybe he'll fold if I bet my 66." And he ended up being right because you out-thought yourself. Most villains aren't very good poker players. Villains who call three cold on the flop definitely aren't very good poker players. Inferrences that you draw on their behavior that are based on an assumption that your opponent plays like you do will very often be wrong, and they'll very often cost you money. In this case, I'd say there's about a 60% chance that you folded the best hand. [/ QUOTE ] OK, I am micro thinking this because it has come up alot and I am loosing most of them. In other words I am running like the worst crap in the world and want to make sure I am playing right and not going on tilt. I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing. To end this, I DID CALL on the river and he showed 33 for a rivered fullhouse. He cold called 3 bets pre-flop with 33 and caught his set on the flop. Yes he is a donk but a very lucky one. I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called. There is the argument that the villian may have folded thinking I had AK for the bigger fullhouse, but that is remote and I would have lost the same amount or more if he raised.
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#6
11-14-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing. [/ QUOTE ] Dude ... wait wat? He calls 3-cold pf then slowplays a set on two streets on a draw heav board that hits in the middle of your range and only bets when he is checked to boating up on the river? And all of a sudden Villan is expert? Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, QQ, J3, AJ, A3 any A ... and if he doesn't fold 33 for a 3-bet pf do you really think hes folding a FH on the river? Remember the Yeti theorem ...
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#7
11-14-2007, 02:25 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing. [/ QUOTE ] Dude ... wait wat? He calls 3-cold pf then slowplays a set on two streets on a draw heav board that hits in the middle of your range and only bets when he is checked to boating up on the river? And all of a sudden Villan is expert? Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, any A and ... [/ QUOTE ] 
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#8
11-14-2007, 02:28 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, QQ, J3, AJ, A3 any A,... [/ QUOTE ] Dude, did you miss the part where I say [ QUOTE ] it has come up alot and I am loosing most of them. In other words I am running like the worst crap in the world [/ QUOTE ] or maybe when I said [ QUOTE ] I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called. [/ QUOTE ]
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#9
11-14-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called. There is the argument that the villian may have folded thinking I had AK for the bigger fullhouse, but that is remote and I would have lost the same amount or more if he raised. [/ QUOTE ] Scott, you need to take a break. You're on tilt (altering the way you play your hands due to the results from previous hands). You're actually on some pretty serious monkey-tilt, it sounds like, given the convolutions you've gone through in this thread, and the highly suspect assumptions you're making about Villans' thought-processes. And, fwiw, the argument that Villan might have folded his boat thinking you had a better boat is completely specious...a) the guy cold-called 3 pf with a small pair, 2) nobody ever folds a boat on the river in micro games, and iii. you bet the river because he will call with worse hands, not because he will fold better ones.
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#10
11-15-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: Do You Fold the River
[ QUOTE ]
I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this comment at least to the extent that games have been getting tougher on all levels I've played after the UIGEA. That includes 0.50/1 when UIGEA happened. Nevertheless, Villain in this hand is a donkey.
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