******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********

[crashwhips]

I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post.

[thisnamedoesntfi]

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I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post.

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I hope plzbenice reads this post after reading your previous advice to him .:P

[iggymcfly]

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Yeah, 20bb/100 (10PTBB/100) is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough. I've got over 50K hands at 0.50/1 and below and I'm averaging 27.8bb/100.

PTBB is usually the standard on this forum though and while you can easily hit 20 PTBB/100 for 10K hands or so if you're running well, I don't think that can be sustainable.

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From your stats posted here and seeing you win AA53 vs AAJJds, I know you are running shortterm hot in allins. And that could help explain a big winrate shorterm.

I have an academic interest though in knowing how hot (+EV) one could possibly be for allins over the full 50k (or 20, 30k etc) hands. In theory, I think the allin luck should converge to a normal distribution after 100-150 allins (red vs blue lines in Allin luck on PokerEV). And then run pretty close to at EV thereafter.

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The thing here is that while the number of PTBB/100 will eventually reduce due to luck, at the same time, the overall number of buy-ins will slowly increase. So the convergence of lines is very gradual when in absolute terms, they don't even really converge at all.

Here's a long-term graph for you, and apparently, I am quite a luckbox:



So while the PTBB/100 gained are down under 3 and would likely be under 2 if I doubled the number of hands, the absolute number of buy-ins will continue moving further away from expectation the more hands I play. If I put in a million hands, you'd expect it to be off by 100 BI or so.

P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Elrazor]

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I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post.

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I hope plzbenice reads this post after reading your previous advice to him .:P

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quite!! - PlsBernice - i think you have your post flop agro factor skewed by having the include pre flop agression box checked. the standard way of measuring agro factor here is the unchecked version

[Big Dave D]

Weren't you only saying in Sept how much you would *love* to make 5PTBB? Now you reckon 10PTBB "is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough." Your long term seems a 'lil different than mine.

gl

bdd

[iggymcfly]

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Weren't you only saying in Sept how much you would *love* to make 5PTBB? Now you reckon 10PTBB "is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough." Your long term seems a 'lil different than mine.

gl

bdd

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I'm 99% sure you have me confused with someone else. At one point, I may have said that I wanted to make a minimum of 5 PTBB/100 at 1/2 and higher since I was extremely frustrated that I was averaging 1 or 2 over a small sample, but I can't imagine being excited about the idea of having such a winrate.

If you look at that graph I posted, you'll see that I'm averaging 9.84 PTBB/100 since July 1st over 87,000 hands which is both pretty close to 10 PTBB/100 and a pretty large sample the last time I checked. Obviously, I'm running a little above expectation, but I was also playing pretty bad in the 1/2 and 2/4 games for a while. If I just look at 0.5/1 and below, my expectation is over 10 PTBB/100 over a span of 50K hands.

Also, if I just look at hands I played 4-handed or less over that same time period, I'm averaging 25 PTBB/100 over 18K hands. Making a little effort to game select, 10 PTBB/100 isn't hard at all.

[Big Dave D]

Perhaps your ability to estimate probabilities is a little flawed.

http://tinyurl.com/3bev9y

gl

bdd

[Troll_Inc]

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P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Actually you dirty rotten lucky bastard, but I do actually have an academic interest in it. It's not that I hate money or anything and would rather win money than lose it, but I find this nonsense interesting.

So you are up 38% in all-in luck, and I was down ~50% but if I'm reading the following thread correctly the spread of results can be quite high.

I did find this thread where someone analyzed and the deviations are much larger than I would have guessed: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12234213

I'm trying to figure out how to get the data out of PokerEV into Excel.

[CrushinFelt]

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P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Actually you dirty rotten lucky bastard, but I do actually have an academic interest in it. It's not that I hate money or anything and would rather win money than lose it, but I find this nonsense interesting.

So you are up 38% in all-in luck, and I was down ~50% but if I'm reading the following thread correctly the spread of results can be quite high.

I did find this thread where someone analyzed and the deviations are much larger than I would have guessed: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12234213

I'm trying to figure out how to get the data out of PokerEV into Excel.

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Also, fwiw aren't the red/blue lines supposed to diverge in the long run?

[roggles]

Do you guys enjoy gambling? Even when I have gotten my money in bad I like seeing cards come off, and like the thrill, unless I am losing a lot lately.

I wonder if this mentality makes me a worse player subconsiously.