25NL: bluff-raise on river

Djeorge · #1 01-01-2007, 02:13 PM

Villain was 53/8/1.8 over 160 hands. His river bet basically said "I don't have a J" so I figured a raise would be good here. Thoughts? I think the flop and turn called were probably standard, but comments welcome on that too.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($43.35)
UTG ($14.30)
Hero ($32.60)
SB ($13.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1, Hero calls $1, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($3.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2.

River: ($7.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $2.5, Hero raises to $15, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $24.75

Sir Winalot · #2 01-01-2007, 02:18 PM

I usually raise flop. I think river is fine, but I probably wouldn't do it most of the time.

underthesky · #3 01-01-2007, 02:23 PM

I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

Sir Winalot · #4 01-01-2007, 02:59 PM

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I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

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Calling preflop is ok with a limper before. I'm not saying that raising would be wrong, but IMO call > raise. Actually, the vpip doesn't tell that much of how much he calls the river. I think his wtsd and w$sd would be better stats to use here.

Djeorge · #5 01-01-2007, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling preflop is ok with a limper before. I'm not saying that raising would be wrong, but IMO call > raise. Actually, the vpip doesn't tell that much of how much he calls the river. I think his wtsd and w$sd would be better stats to use here.

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Yeah you're right about the irrelevancy (word?) of the VPIP here. I didn't even look at the wtsd or w$sd stats at the time, I just sort of insta-raised. He did fold, but I was left wondering whether I was just folding out a bluff/busted draw/worse hand. I suppose a better 5 or 66-88 sort of hand might've folded but meh.

Bowlboy · #6 01-01-2007, 04:07 PM

In general, I think bluff raising this river isnt bad given how weak a river bet by opponent, just wondering if $15 is too much though. If a PSR would get the job done in folding out hands that cannot beat trip jacks just as often or close to it as your raise to $15 then doesnt that make it +EV? I think that a PSR might actually be given a little bit more credit.