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#1
11-20-2007, 03:08 PM
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25NL AA Fold or Push
villain is a 36/30/2
fold or push here? villain hasnt really been aggressive. suggestions anywhere in the hand is appreciated. thanks Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter Hero (UTG): $38.55 MP: $25 CO: $16.20 BTN: $24.85 SB: $23.40 BB: $30.35 MP posts $0.25 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $1 Flop: ($4.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero ??? 
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#3
11-20-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push
[ QUOTE ]
villain is a 36/30/2 villain hasnt really been aggressive. [/ QUOTE ] Uhm...whuh? How can a 36/30/2 not be aggressive? This guy is an aggro-monkey preflop and postflop he's not that much different. The preflop smooth-call and the flop check-raise indicate to me that he's either hit a set (88/66 most likely) or he's got top pair and he's value-betting against your trash. There's one easy way to find out which he has: you can push. In that case, he'll fold all the hands that you beat and he'll call with all the hands that beat you. Since this isn't exactly the outcome we'd prefer, I'd rather smooth-call the flop bet. You're heads-up, you're in position, and you've got a really strong hand. Why fold out hands that you're crushing? In my mind, I'm pot-committed now; my goal is to get BB all-in along with me. If I smooth-call this flop bet, BB will frequently bet again on the turn, and usually it will be big. At that point, I can smooth-call again and get it all-in on the river. If villain checks to me on the turn I can check behind -- this will put villain into an absolute aggro-frenzy, and he'll open-push most rivers. Even if he doesn't, my river push will look very suspect and I'll get looked up light. The board is dry and safe, so I'm really not afraid of anything (other than another Q). I see no reason to blow my opponent off his hand; let him do the betting, because calling down is going to be more +EV than pushing or folding.
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#5
11-20-2007, 03:26 PM
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Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] villain is a 36/30/2 villain hasnt really been aggressive. [/ QUOTE ] Uhm...whuh? How can a 36/30/2 not be aggressive? This guy is an aggro-monkey preflop and postflop he's not that much different. The preflop smooth-call and the flop check-raise indicate to me that he's either hit a set (88/66 most likely) or he's got top pair and he's value-betting against your trash. There's one easy way to find out which he has: you can push. In that case, he'll fold all the hands that you beat and he'll call with all the hands that beat you. Since this isn't exactly the outcome we'd prefer, I'd rather smooth-call the flop bet. You're heads-up, you're in position, and you've got a really strong hand. Why fold out hands that you're crushing? In my mind, I'm pot-committed now; my goal is to get BB all-in along with me. If I smooth-call this flop bet, BB will frequently bet again on the turn, and usually it will be big. At that point, I can smooth-call again and get it all-in on the river. If villain checks to me on the turn I can check behind -- this will put villain into an absolute aggro-frenzy, and he'll open-push most rivers. Even if he doesn't, my river push will look very suspect and I'll get looked up light. The board is dry and safe, so I'm really not afraid of anything (other than another Q). I see no reason to blow my opponent off his hand; let him do the betting, because calling down is going to be more +EV than pushing or folding. [/ QUOTE ] This is a really good breakdown. I think most here would do good to read and re-read this. The default play of fold/push is often not best for a made hand.
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#7
11-20-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push
Ya, Pokey basically beat me to it, but this is either a set or top pair almost all of the time.
It's unlikely a bluff because we're not heads-up at the flop. So, his range is probably something like 66,88,AQ,KQ, and maybe a badly played KK. (perhaps 86 if he's super loose). Against this entire range we're ahead overall, and about 50/50 worst case scenario. I usually call and the try to get it all in on the turn rather than on the river, but either probably works. Usually I try to get it in on the turn while villain still has some "hope" that he can win the hand. (Unfortunately, this is usually when they are on a draw). So ya, call flop, then if he bets turn you can either put him in or flat call again. If he checks turn, you kind of have to know how aggressive he is on the river. A lot of LAG maniacs will slow down once they realize they've been called down for 2 big bets. The pot is so huge it'll hardly matter though - $22 in by the turn, and effective stacks have around $20 behind.
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#8
11-20-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push
Villain is very aggressive but that doesn't mean he wont fold to a push if hes behind here. Behind or not, I think you should call his raise and aim to get it in on the turn.
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#9
11-20-2007, 03:40 PM
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Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push
poker I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you. Please Coach Me.
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