($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs

[sence25]

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[Villain's raise basically commits him.
I don't think we can just call and give him the chance to get out of the hand if we hit.

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If he is committed he is not letting this go.

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If he has a weak J, he might let it go on a bad turn(note that any overcard hits our hand).
Ok, possibly commited was the wrong word, I meant that he's never folding to any flop action.

[sence25]

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Get out of the hand? He almost certainly has a monster. My deep stack comment has nothing to do with playing for stacks or drawing cheaply because obviously he isn't deep.

We're in position and a)could hit our draw or improve our hand and b)could get a free turn if he slows down.

Shoving is really bad, IMO.

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he will only slow down if we hit.
that's why I shove.

[TruFloridaGator]

He's not only slowing down when we hit. A set or JT is not folding & QJ,KJ isn't slowing down on a 9 turn.

Regardless, I think he has a pretty huge hand too often to shove.

[sence25]

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He's not only slowing down when we hit. A set or JT is not folding & QJ,KJ isn't slowing down on a 9 turn.

Regardless, I think he has a pretty huge hand too often to shove.

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You got it the other way around, there is no card on the turn that slows him down that doesn't hit our hand, assuming he's got a pair of jacks or better.
therefore, freecards won't have lotta value for us(because if he checks, we usually just hit, right?) which makes me still feel shoving > calling, but I'm keen to read more opinions on this one.
it kinda depends on how villain will play something like J9 here, if he checks the turn, calling is prolly better.

[TruFloridaGator]

Probably not a card that slows him down period minus an Ace.
I'm confused now, let me think.

[BicVicTheQuick]

I'm in general not a big fan of calling in SNG's but in this case I think it's the better play!

If consider shoving without a monster hand, I want to have some FE and this is not the case here IMO.

Ohh, and I'm checking behind the flop most of the time...

[Jaqrabbit]

I'm a little confused too. We're definitely getting the odds to draw to our straight here (160 call into a 650 pot is ~4 to 1) if we call. I'm not sure about the shove though. Villain is representing a lot of strength with the c/r, so I feel like we're probably not looking at a weak jack here very often (like J8 or J9 or something). The weakest hand I can put him on is QJo. If he's on QJ/KJ, any two pair (most likely JT - J3 & T3 don't call that often pf, I would guess) or a set (33/TT - JJ repops pf) then our pair outs are no good - at worst, he catches a second pair, otherwise it doesn't help him but we're still behind. AJ seems like the best hand we can be up against, since our pair outs are clean.

So if we shove and he calls every time (maybe not, but just for the sake of argument) we're putting in an additional 1090 for a pot of 1740 with maybe 11 outs (since the Ks & Qs may not be good) and the small chance villain is bluffing and we're already winning. We're getting 1.5:1 pot odds and odds against us are 3:1. That looks like a bad shove to me.

Sence, if I understand what you're saying, you want to shove since if we hit he probably won't call any bets and we'll lose value. But I think we're getting our money in behind here without enough in the pot (or villain's stack) to make it worth it.

Oh, and I definitely like checking the flop behind here - I'd love a free card with this hand.

[AMT]

if we dont have FE on the flop, as most of you seem to say (hint: this is incorrect, I see no way to make that judgment based on this small raise, people play terribly oop vs the pfr in HU pots), what makes any of you think that hes not firing the turn? The argument for getting a free turn is just as weak, if not weaker than the argument for having absolutely 0 FE on the flop.

[TruFloridaGator]

The c/r vs a 2.1 aggro looks pretty strong to me in a SNG. It's not a min-raise so he didn't instaclick it. Not arguing the right play, just I think our FE is pretty close to 0 vs our read.

[donkeykong2]

villain is pretty low on chips, i really dont think it matters too much if you shove or call here. if he has just shown any tendency to bluff i d definitely shove though.