($27) AQ to 13x BB shove over

[taipan168]

Opp's stats 23/15/1.4 over 165 hands.

I ran this ICM on this and I need to be 41% to win to make this a good call:
- Against TT+, AK I'm 30.6% to win
- Against 99+, AQ+ I'm 38.7% to win
- Against 77+, AJ+ I'm 46% to win
- Against 66+, AT+, KQ I'm 50.4% to win.

So what does a player with these stats shove over with here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 (t1350)
CO (t770)
Button (t1295)
SB (t1715)
BB (t1610)
UTG (t4175)
Hero (t1555)
MP1 (t1030)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, A.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1295</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ????

[eurythmech]

He has got to be wider than 99 AQ imho.

[drzen]

If I had to guess, I'd say AT+, 88+. You're behind that but not much. He could be a bit wider. If he goes as low as A9+, KQ, 88+ you are ahead.

You are making money if you call. But I'd find this tough, because a/ I'd feel I'd be busting out more often than not and b/ "making money" is not the same as making money. Chips do not translate smoothly into cash, sadly.

[eurythmech]

hence ICM?

[JacJacAtk]

Do people really jam worse aces over an UTG+1 raise here (23/15 people, at least)? My range would depend on who UTG+1 is, of course, but AQ seems to be about the worst of the aces I'd go with against someone I thought was reasonably sane (because I wouldn't expect a fold all that often). I might be too nitty, though.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
hence ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, it's a huge comfort to "make money" when you have just lost your sixth game running. Particularly when you are guessing a range and getting it wrong makes your +$EV call a -$EV one.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
Do people really jam worse aces over an UTG+1 raise here (23/15 people, at least)? My range would depend on who UTG+1 is, of course, but AQ seems to be about the worst of the aces I'd go with

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the reasons we hope to make money at poker is that others do not do what we do. So yeah, they do actually push over EP raises with weak aces. Most poker noobs have no notion of position.

[jetlag99]

Raise 250 or push PF. Call push.