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#1
11-07-2007, 06:40 PM
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YARPT
Yet Another Ron Paul Thread
Thought this one was special enough to get it's own thread. There seems to be a growing divide between Republican organizations and their rank and file membership. For example, this email from my wife: [ QUOTE ] Read this one: <font color="white"> . </font> http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=99982 <font color="white"> . </font> Then read this one: <font color="white"> . </font> http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...l-in-new-york/ <font color="white"> . </font> -- Ron Paul is not running an internet campaign. The internet is running Ron Paul. [/ QUOTE ] The first article is a blurb stating that Dr. Paul was denied access to the NYC Republican Club for a fundraiser back in October: [ QUOTE ] Ron Paul’s campaign stated on its website that the New York Republican club told the campaign that there wasn’t enough support on its board to allow Ron Paul to host a fund raiser at the club. <font color="white"> . </font> Paul’s campaign is looking for another location for the October 12th fund raiser. <font color="white"> . </font> The Metropolitan Republican club states on its website that: <font color="white"> . </font> “We are a varied and enthusiastic group with the common goal of supporting New York City Republican candidates and ideals. Met Club activities include election campaigns, informational programs, and social events. Anyone who shares our basic goals and beliefs is welcome to become a member of the Metropolitan Republican Club.” [/ QUOTE ] The second article is a blog blurb on Dr. Paul winning the NYC Republican Club's own straw poll: [ QUOTE ] Ron Paul Wins! That’s the headline today after the first New York State Republican Straw Poll. Clearly, after raking in a record amount of money the other day, Mr. Paul is on a roll. He seems to have out-organized his fellow Republicans — on Rudolph W. Giuliani’s home turf. <font color="white"> . </font> The New York State straw poll was conducted Tuesday at the Metropolitan Republican Club in New York City. <font color="white"> . </font> The results: Mr. Paul, 26 votes; Mr. Giuliani, 21; Mitt Romney, 6; John McCain, 4; Mike Huckabee, 2; Duncan Hunter, 1; Fred Thompson, 1; Tom Tancredo, 0. [/ QUOTE ] What a difference a month can make? Or is it possible that the support from the membership was strong all along, and highly placed officials in the NYCRC denied the fundraiser on their own initiative? I don't know. But there has been a pattern of party elites excluding Dr. Paul from certain events while inviting far "fringier and longshottier" candidates like Tancredo, Brownback, Hunter in the past, and there is simply no way to sustain this anymore. Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. Interesting things are afoot. 
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#3
11-07-2007, 07:18 PM
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Re: YARPT
I have never put much weight into a straw poll victory, but Ol' Ron winning a straw pole in New York seems to be a sign that things may be changing.
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#4
11-07-2007, 07:42 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late.
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#5
11-07-2007, 07:50 PM
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Re: YARPT
I think that people that poo-poo the prediction market don't really understand it very well. There was a great article I read about it recently (not actually about the prediction market per se, but used it as an illustration of a broader point):
Evolution and the Wisdom of Crowds
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#6
11-07-2007, 07:52 PM
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Re: YARPT
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#7
11-07-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not? If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides.
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#8
11-07-2007, 08:33 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not? If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, you can both bid and ask, i.e. buy and sell. Edit to add: In fact you have to, since contracts are made between buyers and sellers, and not the "bookie".
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#9
11-07-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not? If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, you can both bid and ask, i.e. buy and sell. Edit to add: In fact you have to, since contracts are made between buyers and sellers, and not the "bookie". [/ QUOTE ] I know you can both buy and sell, but as a practical matter, how much money would I make right now by (short) selling a Ron Paul if he doesn't get nominated, and how much of my profit would go into commission?
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