100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop

[Lego05]

Villian is 21.5/20.3/4 postflop agg. over 418 hands.

His steal percentage is 37.38%


I've 3bet this guy a bunch in the past though I don't think I have yet today. He has in the past called my 3bet with T9o (though that one time is the only time I've seen him do something crazyish) and called 2 barrels (maybe 3 I don't remember) with a pair of T's. So I think he can call my 3bets a little light.


So I thought the numbers here were pretty close. I wanted to see what other people would do. I'd think that ace has to be an out some of the time.


So what would you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($209.15)
Button ($102.10)
SB ($112.70)
Hero ($198.75)
UTG ($115.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $13</font>, Button calls $9.

Flop: ($26.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $52</font>, Hero ???

[the machine]

id be more curious to his steal percentage over anything. as played id probably fold here. i think our clean outs kill our action and an ace may as well. if an ace doesnt kill our action were in a real tough spot OOP and i cant see him stacking here when we make our straight.

disclaimer: this would probably be my standard line however from time to time 3 balling him here and calling a shove, or shoving may be ok too. id probably only do this about 15% of the time though.




if i think hes capable of calling lght, IE K10 or so given that youve 3b him alot before then id def 3b AI

[Lego05]

His steal percentage is 37.38%

[the machine]

ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

[Paul Thomson]

this spot sucks. if u like variance push. if u don't fold. it really depends if you think he can show up with a made straight.

i'm a gambooler..so push.

[nazahl]

i'd fold

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

[/ QUOTE ]


He's raised my c-bet in 3 bet pots a few times in the past after the hand were he called down with the pair of tens. (I think I had A high that hand.) But nothing much had happened at this table and I never saw a showdown in the past...I think I folded the 2 - 4 times he did it.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

[/ QUOTE ]


He's raised my c-bet in 3 bet pots a few times in the past after the hand were he called down with the pair of tens. (I think I had A high that hand.) But nothing much had happened at this table and I never saw a showdown in the past...I think I folded the 2 - 4 times he did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

given you guys have some history of 3b's and raising cbets and such i might just shove here if i think hes liable to leave me with 14 outs (sometimes) when the shove is called. obv he call with sets and straights and probably most overpairs, but if i feel hell call as light as one pair leaving me 14 outs at time then i shove.

[nazahl]

I think you'll have 11 outs a good percentage of the time and 14 outs like hardly ever

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll have 11 outs a good percentage of the time and 14 outs like hardly ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it +ev to get it in here having 11 outs a large percentage of the time?