100NL; Arag with TP facing 1/2 pot on river vs. unknown

[orange]

you can bet the turn because you can still gain value from a draw or some other dumb 2nd pair and there are not so many great cards on the river. villans like this will rarely c/r the turn with a draw as well so we can easily fold to a c/r.

[DaycareInferno]

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I dunno but it seems I can bet the turn and still get a call from like 99 that is stubborn. I mean, he open limp/called, he's not that great. You'd be surprised how many people want to catch you bluffing.

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yeah, but at the same time, tons of idiots float flop with a small pair and then fire it on the river for no good reason.

[Lego05]

What if villian check calls the turn and then leads the river? I almost always think it's really weird to play a hand like that but I see people do it.


Also...how much is everyone betting on the turn?

[sh58]

you gotta call.

[sh58]

i think check behind the turn is standard and is alot better than bet/folding here

[tbaarslag]

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i think check behind the turn is standard and is alot better than bet/folding here

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Why? Bet turn/check river behind is simply interchanging the action getting more value from draws no?

[sh58]

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i think check behind the turn is standard and is alot better than bet/folding here

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Why? Bet turn/check river behind is simply interchanging the action getting more value from draws no?

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when you check behind the turn, you get alot of value from villain betting into you on river, either bluffing a missed draw or betting some random pair. the assumption from the villain is that you Cbet then gave up. you will find alot of villains whose favorite line is call Cbet, check turn, then bet any river if PFR checked behind. these are the ones with the much higher river AF then the other streets.

i like to do this with a hand like this because it shows that a turn check behind isn't necessarily weak. it has the added metagame benefit of allowing marginal hands like underpairs, bottom pair or A hi to be checked down on the river in future, when we certainly cannot call a river bet with them

[tbaarslag]

Right, so we'd like to bet the turn if he has a draw (which is obv. superior to letting him bluff a missed draw) {33-44 and diamonds: approx. 20 combinations}, and check if he has a pair {66-TT: 30 combinations}.

I think we have to do some math to figure out what is better here.

[fingersmith]

sh58 is spot on here.

in general i think we weight people's ranges too much toward draws, especially when we see two to a flush out. more often it's just a random pair or nothing.