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Old 11-02-2007, 02:39 AM
Assani Fisher Assani Fisher is offline
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Default NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

Fonkey123 posted THIS ARTICLE in a recent NBA thread, but the thread got locked before we really had a chance to discuss it. I thought it'd make for an interesting topic of debate.

I guess what I find most interesting is how this would impact a team like Utah right now who has a ton of good young pieces, but it'd be a stretch to think that any of them will be gold medal superstars one day(obviously Boozer and Deron have an outside shot, but its unlikely). Does that mean that the Jazz should just look to trade them while their value is high and look to rebuild? That seems like a crazy thought for a young team that just came off the WCF.

But assume that the Jazz sign Boozer and Deron to long term deals and build around them. Assuming that they don't luck into another superstar, but also assuming that they can do a decent job of adding quality role players(and it looks like they already have quite a few pieces in place) then what odds do you give them of winning at least one title in the next 10 years?


Another interesting aspect of the article: Does this mean that you should never give a big contract to a star but not superstar player like Joe Johnson/Redd/R Lewis/etc.? I'm sure some would immediately say "yes, you should most definitely not overpay those 'good but not great' guys because their contracts will set your team back for years"....but play GM for a second- how then do you keep your fanbase happy? Do you just spend nothing and be terrible while rebuilding for years and years while hoping to finally draft that one true superstar?

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  #2  
Old 11-02-2007, 02:52 AM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

Derons pwns...that is all

LOL at anyone thinking Chris Paul is a better bball player
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  #3  
Old 11-02-2007, 02:53 AM
BobboFitos BobboFitos is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

we spoke about this a little bit, and the primary criticism (on my end) was that it is very matter of fact AFTER the fact. Ie, people become gold after they win, they dont become gold and THEN win. so it just so happens great players win championships-no kiddin
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Old 11-02-2007, 03:12 AM
anatta anatta is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

Most champs have the superstars, Lakers, Spurs, etc, but the Pistons fit all the pieces together to win it all. I think the Jazz are hoping their stars improve, Kirilenko and Okur play great, and maybe get lucky one of these years and pick up an impact player, like the Pistons did with Rasheed. At the worst they are a "contender" and the fans are happy enough. Better that then rebuild and try to get the next Duncan or Lebron, IMO.
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Old 11-02-2007, 03:28 AM
Billy Bibbit Billy Bibbit is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

As I said in the other thread, it's a dumb theory because the very criteria that he uses to decide who is a "gold medal superstar" are already biased in favor of players on great teams. Guys like Bryant, McGrady and Garnett have all played for lottery teams at one point and none of them received any MVP consideration during those respective seasons.

I could summarize the theory in three sentences. Every year that you're a great player on a great team, you get points. If you get enough points, I'll call you a "gold medal superstar." The only way you can be a great team is if you have at least one great player who plays for a great team. It's a tautology.

The Jazz are doing just fine, and if they win a title people will think of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer as being in the upper echelon of NBA players (and honestly, I'm not sure that Boozer isn't up there already). I might give them a 25% chance of winning a title in the next five years, which is pretty good considering that they don't have a Tim Duncan (edit: and their chances of getting a guy like that by blowing up the team would be much less than 25%). 10 years is too long; there's no way to know whether Williams and Boozer will even be on the Jazz for that long.
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Old 11-02-2007, 03:35 AM
TheNoodleMan TheNoodleMan is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

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  #7  
Old 11-02-2007, 03:53 AM
Semtex Semtex is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

This is goingto be a rambling post be forewarned, it was a really long article, i skimmed a lot of it. First off, lol at Ben Wallace being the dominant player on that Pistons championship team.

The part where he talked about how the superstar factor affected the notion of basketball as a team sport was off too. This is the NBA, its not basketball. Its becoming more and more about the show, so its only natural that superstars will thrive. The only reason Dwayne Wade is even getting all that attention in his list is because the refs called 617348345 fouls for him in those finals.

But besides getting an inordinate amount of referee assistance, Dallas still helped them enormously. Even with Wade and Shaq Dallas should have won that year. This is I don't think its about the superstar at all, though it can help. Its about the team and the organization first. KG is a silver medalist while Duncan is a gold medalist for one reason only, the organization he ended up with. I have no doubt the Spurs would have been just as dominant with him as without, they are managed and coached too damn well.

This is the problem with his ranking system, he's not rating potential, he's rating results. Should you pass on KG because he's not a gold medal superstar? Seems dumb he easily could have been, given the right set of circumstances. You see what I'm saying? If GMs followed this guy's advice, they would almost always pass on the young up and comer, or the superstar who couldn't quite go the distance, for the proven winner. I'm not sure this is always correct. Shaq wasn't the key to that Miami championship Wade was, and they shouldn't have won anyway and haven't come close since. If you had the choice between Jordan or Bird in '86 who would you have taken? I can see the argument for Bird, but you would have been crucified 5 years later.

Utah is interesting. On paper, AK47 should be the superstar of this team, but for some reason he doesn't fit in. To trade Deron and Boozer at this point would be suicidal, just because in their second year on the team they haven't won 6 championships to become gold medal superstars. The problem is, if Boozer keeps putting up 30/10 for any extended period of time someone is going to offer him a max contract if you don't, and if he does end up being a gold medal superstar, leading some team to a bunch of championships, you are going to be left looking like an idiot for letting him go. The point is you can't tell. Any superstar, gold medal or not, has the potential to become gold medal in the right situation.

Which leads to the conclusion. The difference between gold and silver medalists is not the difference between the players but they respective organizations they ended up on. This is the key. Its about all the pieces, not just one. Coaching and role players are just as key. It should be gold and silver medal organizations. Thats why even if the Jazz got Kobe and built around him, they're still not beating the Spurs. There is nothing they can do. They are the gold medal organization. Its not just coaching and management. Its the players, fans, everything. All the pieces are in place.
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  #8  
Old 11-02-2007, 03:56 AM
tarheeljks tarheeljks is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

[ QUOTE ]
Derons pwns...that is all

LOL at anyone thinking Chris Paul is a better bball player

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, he is. deron has boozer, who does paul have? gtfo please, jk. in all seriousness paul put up better #'s than deron last season and also had better rookie numbers (granted he got fewer minutes as a rookie). deron williams just happened to get drafted by a better a team.
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  #9  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:02 AM
Assani Fisher Assani Fisher is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

btw, let me be clear that I am not saying the article is 100% accurate. I just wanted to discuss the situation of having a few good but not great players and whats the best course of action for a team in that position. The Jazz might have been a poor example due to Boozer/Deron's ability to turn out to be top level players.

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  #10  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:08 AM
tarheeljks tarheeljks is offline
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Default Re: NBA: Gold Medal Super Star Theory

i would say that boozer/deron have little chance of becoming good enough to carry a team to a championship. deron has a better chance b/c he's younger, but neither of them are likely to be the key piece on a championship team. the gold medal players referenced in the article don't come around often enough for a gm to always be able to bail on current superstars who are good/great but not great enough to win a championship.

edit: in such a scenario i think the gm has to stick w/it and hope the team can overachieve.
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