***NBA FUTURES THREAD***

[alwardc4]

I got Washington 10-1 to win the division. That is all I have so far.

I am still looking at any unders to take for the season totals. I do like the Charlotte one. I am a Cavs fan and like their under as well.

[thing85]

Centris, if your system likes HOU u53.5 at -115 on 5Dimes, why wouldn't it like HOU u54 for -105 on Bodog?

[centris]

Oops sorry that should have been HOU u53.5 +115, which it likes better than u54 -105.

Good catch thing85, thanks.

[bevo_stevo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know any thing about the NBA, but I want to get a little action down so I took pinny's line as the true line, assumed a Poisson distribution and then just looked for value at the two books I have right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Requisite ImStillBen response: "No"

Wong is just plain wrong about using Binomial distributions to model season wins in sports where they play a lot of games. For example, the 1995-96 Spurs won 59 games. With many returning players it would not be unreasonable to expect them to win 53 games in the 96-97 season so lets assume that that was the expected average number of games for a hypothetical Pinny line.

During the 96-97 season the Spurs won 20 games, for those keeping track at home, thats a 1 in 5 million event (to win 20 or fewer games). That event should only happen once in about 200,000 seasons.

So is it possible that we witnessed a 1 in 200,000 year event? No, not really - the truth is that the standard deviation is much higher than what Poisson gives you, and as a result RSW totals close to the posted lines occur less frequently than Wong's theory predicts.

[rsigley]

here's mine

phoenix suns o55 -110
miami heat u45.5 -120
ny knicks o36 -120
seattle supersonics o27.5 -115
sa spurs u55.5 +100
la lakers u42.5 -110

[llabb]

Portland Under 31.5 -115
San Antonio Over 55.5 -115

[llabb]

Houston Over 53.5 -120

[ejay]

I am so sick about not getting enough $ in my accounts earlier so i can bet more but here are some of my picks

Seattle u 28 (1.83)
Orlando u 46 (1.83)
Atlanta u 38 (1.9)
Toronto o 42.5 (1.66)
Boston u 48.5 (1.9)

Bulls to win division (3.2)
Raptors to win division (4.0)
Bulls to win east (5.5)

i have a couple of really small bets (less then $50 because i ran out of $ and am over my deposit limit) on spurs to win title and was to win division.

There is one bet that i wish i could make and would encourage others to make (I wish i could swap with someone) and that is the Kings under 34.5. Bibby out 10 weeks and artest suspended 7 games makes this line look golden. They were prolly like a 35 win team if they stayed healthy.

few thoughts:

I think that the celtics and the magic are both overvalued. There is no way that rashard lewis adds a lot to the magic and i think that they have a realistic chance of missing the postseason (raps,celts,nets,heat,wiz,cavs,bulls and pistons are all better imo).

I think that the celtics will start somewhat slow due to the many changes and they are also going to struggle in back to back games due to their lack of depth. I think that this is something that is overlooked and i think that this is the biggest reason that raptors won 47 games last yr. They are 9-10 deep and they won a large % of their back to backs simply because of their depth. I also think that celtics cannot have one of the big 3 hurt and both pierce and allen missed a lot of time last yr...

I like the raptors and bulls becaue they are young and deep and i view the bulls as being the best team in the east. They prolly would have won the div. last year had pistons not picked up webber and i think that they got better in the offseason and pistons didnt.

[ejay]

if its possible to swap $ on sporstinteratcive or bet365 i would gladly exchange with someone and give them $ on fulltilt/stars

[llabb]

RSW Summary, including yesterday's plays. Almost all prices still available, some of them better, except for a few taken earlier.


2x: Portland Under 31.5, -115
1.5x: Atlanta Under 38.5, +105
1.5x: Sacramento Under 36, -110 and Under 34.5, -150
1.5x: Cleveland Over 46, -120
1.5x: Seattle Under 28.5, -115
Chicago Over 48, -110
Dallas Over 56.5, -115
Houston Over 53.5, -120
LA Clippers Under 33, -125
New Jersey Under 44, -110
Phoenix Over 55.5, -140
San Antonio Over 55.5, -115
0.5x: Washington Over 39.5, -130


Leans on the other teams, not played, for fun only:
Boston Over 48.5, -120
Charlotte Over 35, +105
Denver Over 49, -115
Detroit Over 48.5, -120
Golden State Under 42.5, -115
Indiana Under 32, -115
Lakers Under 42,5, -115
Miami Under 44.5, -110
Memphis Under 34, -105
Milwaukee Over 35.5, -120
Minnesota Under 20.5, -120
New Orleans Over 38.5, -125
New York Over 36, -125
Orlando Under 47.5, -115
Philadelphia Over 31, +105
Toronto Over 41.5, -140
Utah Over 47.5, -120