College Football Week 8

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Henne just happening to throw the ball way behind Manningham and have him tap the ball up in the air so it could be intercepted was dictated by Illinois?

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Yeah...3rd and 3 is an uncomfortable spot for Michigan
especially with Henne taking so much heat the whole game

keep in mind that Illinois had 4 sacks

Michigan was pretty bad on 3rd downs and it took 5 penalties for first downs to have Michigan move the ball on more than one drive the entire game

Illinois did avg more ypp (best indicator of score) and did put Michigan in more situations for turnovers (3rd and longs and tfls are the best precursors of predicting turnovers)

it took Illinois penalties (some deserved, some not) for Michigan to get drives.

fun exercise--How many first downs would Michigan have gotten on their drives without the penalties on 3rd and 4th down against Illinois?

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halftime
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end game


simply amazing what comes out if one watches what is going on

Some pointed out the 3 points Illinois got the rest of the game
yeah--bad
but, with the huge changes in field possession and the loss of time of possession, one sees an explanation for lots of it 79 to 57 plays in the game is pretty odd. WOuld've loved to see Illinois have more time to pound the Wolverines


the 2 big drives were the punter BS (keep in mind those without a horse in this game said it was a 5 yarder while the homers took their obvious side) and the dumb facemask by Vontae Davis that was followed by a legit personal foul OOB and a muffed punt return. If Davis doesn't grab the mask, Illinois is set up to return with Michigan punting from their own 25. Illinois win share went from about 70% to 25% on that last turn of events IMO. The early penalty changed it from 70% to 55% at that time.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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I know the correct way to deal with it is, "forget it Jake. It's Chinatown."


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Er, no, the correct way is to grow up and realize that Illinois loses to Michigan and Ohio State because for pretty much the entire history of college football Illinois has been worse than Michigan and Ohio State.

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that's exactly the thinking I'm talking about that leads to biased decision making

humans are incredibly poor at thinking and evaluating


perhaps, you should look at the plays in question

[Gregatron]

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also, Michigan didn't play a good game


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[x] still good enough to beat illinois

really, how can you be such a good poster 95% of the time and such a retard when it comes to defending a mediocre team

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Claiming that Michigan did not play a good game is defending UI how?

I tend to agree with MT2R opinions regarding officials, not necessarily regarding the Big10, but officiating in general. Unconscious biases do enter into account in such decision making practices. As a social scientist I have actually studied such phenomena. This is not dissimilar from how judges make decisions as outlined by political scientists. Furthermore, we have seen statistical evidence of unconscious biases re: race playing a role in NBA officiating in the past year.

It's not really tin foil hat theory to argue that people see what they expect to see. Tin foil hat theory is that the Big10 officials are consciously making bad calls to benefit tOSU and UMich to please the Tressel/Carr/Gates/Vatican/Bush/Masonic world power structure (or that they are doing it to screw the other teams so ensure tOSU-UMich dominance). He is not saying that.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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also, Michigan didn't play a good game


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[x] still good enough to beat illinois

really, how can you be such a good poster 95% of the time and such a retard when it comes to defending a mediocre team

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the most common statement I see is that I'm mainly a good poster except for X

of course, X changes based on who is making the comment


I don't think I'm defending mediocrity

You'll find that I'm consistently attacking unearned privilege

believe me, the benefits I see USC get in the Pac10 are just as disgusting

Or Kansas, Kentucky, Duke bball

or yankees baseball

or Michael Jordan his last few years with the Bulls

etc

whenever I see good teams, I'm impressed. However, I despise seeing a team that is already more talented get the benefits on calls over and over. It's a vicious circle that continues.

[NozeCandy]

The point was more that he tapped the ball up in the air, which was extremely fortunate and in no way dictated by Illinois.

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fun exercise--How many first downs would Michigan have gotten on their drives without the penalties on 3rd and 4th down against Illinois?

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Fun exercise -- finding a post where I said Michigan didn't get lucky breaks. I don't know if you were directing this specifically at me or not, but Jesus.

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simply amazing what comes out if one watches what is going on

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Being a jackass for no reason?

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keep in mind those without a horse in this game said it was a 5 yarder while the homers took their obvious side

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I thought it probably was a five-yarder too, but hitting the punter in any capacity is retarded. Punters have to be protected and you're putting the ref in a position where he has to make a judgment call. Any punter would do what Michigan's did yesterday. Not saying it's in the spirit of the game or whatever, but I would fully expect Illinois' punter to do the same thing and would probably bitch about it as well.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I want to be clear
I'm not implying Illinois is the better team. I didn't think it beforehand and don't think it now. I bet on Michigan for the game and the Michigan o25 points before the game and stick to that opinion now. The gap is less than 10 points IMO...far less....like 2-3 points in Champaign or 5.5 to 6 on a nuetral field.


talking about 'breaks' is a weird subject

I mean, is Henne being out a break or is it something Illinois earned by pounding on him?
BTW--Michigan was clearly better with Henne in the game if anyone doubted

Mallett has a ton of upside, but it's near impossible for a true freshman to be better than a 4 year competent starter

Hell, one difference in this game was Henne's ability to do something he couldn't in his younger years, go down the progression chart.

I am upset that it appears that Michigan once again got the better of official judgment calls. I don't think they determined the outcome. It just sucks to know going into a game that it's going to be a factor.

Is it a break or something else when Reda misses a very makeable FG? Is it a break that Illinois muffs a punt? Is it a break that the back-up QB has problems with the center exchange?
Breaks are funny.

Actually, I believe the teams are/were pretty close to even themselves (with Hart out, with him in-it's about 1.5 in the Wolverines favor), but that the coaching (yes Lloyd Carr even) was the difference between the two.

Carr added a shotgun formation that kind of looked like a flexbone that I've never seen Michigan use before. It allowed for sophisticated blocking schemes to hold down the Illini rush, which was surprisingly having a good amount of success v the Michigan o-line. The formation also allowed for more Michigan athletes to get out in pass routes against an Illini defense that lacks speed and athleticism in pass coverage. Illinois doesn't have the depth in place yet. It's still an older school hard-hitting defense that can be attacked with receptions over the middle as LBs and safeties cannot keep up. Manningham's 2 catches on Vontae Davis early in the second were a surprise however as Vontae shuts nearly everyone down. The trick play by Carr was also excellent.

On the other hand, Zook got too conservative when Illinois opened a lead up. Should've let Juice throw the ball some more when Michigan had to be concerned about both the run and pass. Juice wasn't looking that bad. Also, just a terrible bunch formation by Illinois. They consistently went with Lenti (#82) as the one wideout when they went 2 TEs in the I-formation. Lenti isn't a threat at all and Michigan could leave a corner on an island against him and put 10 men in the box. If Zook/Locksley put Benn out there as the one receiver, Michigan's safeties would at least have to pay attention and would be a step slower in stopping run plays....really bothersome that Zook cannot see that and correct Locksley's personnel given Zook's defensive minded background. Even if a defense can put a 90% likelihood on an Illinois run through the middle out of that formation, the 10% they try something else would be somewhat scary with Benn working by himself on a corner. With Lenti, it was a 10 man box and a few less rush yards.
Also, the Illini coaches have to get McGee to pitch the ball off sometimes. He keeps it nearly everytime and it really hurt in the last game. On the 3rd and 4 where McGee got 2 and took the huge hit, Mendenhall had an 80%+ chance of getting the first if McGee pitches to him. McGee needs to recognize how good Mendenhall is and error towards giving Mendenhall the ball too much rather than the other way around.

[time4adrank]

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Les Miles is the dumbest/luckiest coach ever, wow.

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qft

but it's Auburn, so [censored] 'em