QJ hits top pair on drawy board vs jalexand42

[Triumph36]

goofy needs a strong hand to c-bet here - jalex can't call with a draw and then figure that raising a bet on the turn will be +EV. It won't be.

however, I like goofy's line since a bet also has little value on the turn, given that jalex is probably not calling with draws either, and he's calling or raising all better hands.

[jalexand42]

I thought you said you had KK. :P

[jlocdog]

Serious questions....

Why does his flat call on the flop with people to act behind represent a big hand over a draw? Would a draw never peel one, especially with players yet to act, hoping to give them odds to peel as well, thus giving him great odds on his draw/possible combo draw (all while disguising his hand)?

Also, if we new he had a draw on the turn, c/r isn't as bad as its made out to be. We can't always count on him bluffing the river if he missed. It seems just as likely that he calls the raise to gamble, no?

Thanks for clearing all that up...

[jalexand42]

FullTiltPoker : Table Triest (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:42:10 ET - 2007/09/30
Seat 1: twoer1 ($394)
Seat 2: droolbag ($709)
Seat 3: twoer2 ($392.60)
Seat 4: HibachiMahi ($560)
Seat 5: twoer3 ($392.30)
Seat 6: fishy ($383.10)
fishy posts the small blind of $2
twoer1 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HibachiMahi []
droolbag raises to $14
twoer2 has 15 seconds left to act
twoer2 folds
HibachiMahi calls $14
twoer3 calls $14
fishy calls $12
twoer1 folds
*** FLOP *** [9h 6s Qs]
fishy checks
droolbag has 15 seconds left to act
droolbag bets $42
HibachiMahi has 15 seconds left to act
HibachiMahi calls $42
twoer3 folds
fishy folds
*** TURN *** [9h 6s Qs] [2c]
droolbag checks
HibachiMahi bets $116
droolbag has 15 seconds left to act
droolbag calls $116
*** RIVER *** [9h 6s Qs 2c] [5s]
droolbag checks
HibachiMahi bets $388, and is all in


Just for kicks, here's the real hand with slightly different stacks. :P

[jlocdog]

Still looking for someone to clear up things here.....

[jalexand42]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does his flat call on the flop with people to act behind represent a big hand over a draw? Would a draw never peel one, especially with players yet to act, hoping to give them odds to peel as well, thus giving him great odds on his draw/possible combo draw (all while disguising his hand)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect people can peel here with draws, made hands, and sometimes air (less likely with people behind).

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if we new he had a draw on the turn, c/r isn't as bad as its made out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad you don't know if I have a draw. :P

[ QUOTE ]
We can't always count on him bluffing the river if he missed. It seems just as likely that he calls the raise to gamble, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, depends on stacks and odds of a draw hitting with one card to come. I wouldn't intentionally call a raise without odds just to gamboooool.

[markuisis]

I think c/r is the best option here since its doubtful he has a very strong hand which would smooth call in a multi way pot on a flop like that, if he has a draw - u get one more bet from him and i think kq folds here a lot and aq also folds a decent amount of the time

[jlocdog]

All I was implying with my questions was that:

a) This board is VERY draw heavy yet not very 2purr friendly. Very important quality.
b) Your flat call PF allows me to put lesser value on certain hands (namely 99,QQ,AQ). This is not to dismiss these hands. Just give less weight in your range of holdings.
c) Because this flop has 'float' written all over it, the chances of you betting if checked to seems fairly likely.
d) My point about a c/r not being bad if we did know you had a draw was because many always think like, 'if we knew he had a worse hand, why would we want him to fold' and crap like that without taking into consideration the context of the entire hand. Here, we may get you to commit on the turn with a c/r with an inferior hand, whereas if we call we may get no action on the river that we want.
e) If you are putting in any money on the turn, I think you are going with it on that street. Odds seem to be there.
f) Sure you can have KQ, 2purr, or a set but my decision on whether or not to stack off here is on the turn. I am not putting in any money if I am not willing to put in all my money. So b/f seems ridiculous given this board.

I just want to reinforce what I wrote in my first post that I think you call the flop with a draw far more then you raise with one. Obviously the strength of your draw will vary your decision on this. Conversely, I feel you raise the flop with hands that beat us more often then not.