Iggy's Week 4 NCAA Picks - Page 2

iggymcfly · #11 09-22-2007, 04:15 PM

OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

New001 · #12 09-22-2007, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just grabbed 3.5 -115 and +140 ML before reading this. I like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

MicroBob · #13 09-22-2007, 04:33 PM

Iggy - I definitely think the Glass Bowl is one of the better home-field advantages among non-BCS schools.
Weird lighting, bad turf although perhaps it's improved by now, and the big stone bricks make you feel like you walked into Shawshank or something. It's just weird and kind of intimidating I thought.
It doesn't feel modern at all. For a visiting team arriving there I think it mostly has the feel of, "WTF kind of place is this?"
So I definitely tend to give the Rockets a slightly larger edge when they're at home.

Akron's Rubber Bowl is a somewhat decent home-field advantage in that conference for it's unique feel too imo.

MicroBob · #14 09-22-2007, 04:41 PM

Not that I'm a big believer in trends, etc but to support the TOL home-field adv theory:

"TOL are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games."

Mediocre_Player · #15 09-22-2007, 05:06 PM

I like the Toledo pick.

ISU basically had their season crowning moment last week. Now they go on the road for a non conf game .... they're very unlikely to have a shot to get bowl eligible so this game looks like major letdown potential

PropPlayer · #16 09-22-2007, 06:05 PM

I tell ya Spurier really hurt our chances in this game by doing on of the stupidest things I've seen in a while by going for it on 4th down on his own 25 mid way in the 3rd and only down 14. It not like LSU has totally lit them up either his defense has played decent, I can't understand why he did not just punt the ball.

iggymcfly · #17 09-22-2007, 06:12 PM

It makes sense from the standpoint that they were down 14 against a superior opponent and needed to take some chances to have a shot at winning. Obviously, if he was looking to cover the spread, he would have just punted.

PropPlayer · #18 09-22-2007, 06:27 PM

I suppose maybe if I was not betting on this game I might see it that way but I'm not really sure about that. His defense is playing fine and there is plenty of time left in the game that taking a chance mid way in the 3rd quarter from where they were at seemed silly. It was not a short yard either, it was a good full yard maybe a yard and a 1/2 they needed.
Oh well lets hope for our slim shot at a suck out to come through now.

iggymcfly · #19 09-22-2007, 10:07 PM

Washington State +11 vs. USC (2nd half) (Risk 1u to win 1.03u)

USC's lead is just safe enough that they're likely to get a little sleepy in the 2nd half. Also, they've been getting most of their offense through the passing game, so if they go to the run, the scoring should slow way down.

iggymcfly · #20 09-22-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Couldn't actually watch the game, but I was following on GameCast and Toledo got two TDs in the last 5:30 and then blocked an Iowa State FG with 0:15 to win by 1.