Paperchamp's NFL Week 2

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on Ten/Ind u45.5 (I've already bet 2u on that unders for reasons badly covered in the 3+1 thread). Ten +7.5 looks pretty much just as good to me but I feel that if they get established enough to get within a TD, they'll kill enough clock to take it unders. We also have the escape that the Colts actually do batter them it's likely to be an unders total as well.

Taking the unders means, (obviously) we miss out on the 28-21 type scores, but I don't think we miss out on many other scenarios.

Lori

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I like the under as well. I liked it more when it opened at 47 but I think at 45.5 it probably still has some value. The Titans are going to run the ball aggressively and will likely have success. Indy's run defense is still suspect despite their recent success.

[paperchamp]

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Can you explain why you think Tenn is a good bet? genuine curiosity, not trying to be a dick. you're posting your pick, so surely you wouldn't mind posting your analysis as well.

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Actually, I posted analysis all season last year but due to the lack of response in my threads I stopped. If there is discussion going on I have no problem sharing my thoughts on any of my picks.

Najdorf hit the nail on the head. Titans are at home and are one of the best running teams in the league. I'm not convinced that Indy's defense is great all the sudden, especially against the run. You also have to factor in that these are division rivals. Of the 4 games that Indy lost last year, 3 of them were against division rivals and all 4 were on the road. Obviously its an extremely small sample size and not useful for capping this game but its something for the "OMG, INDY WILL DESTROY THEM EASILY" people to think about.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins +4 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans +7.5 (-115)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Houston Texas +7 @ Carolina Panthers (-115)
Risking 1.15u to win 1u

YTD
1-1-1
+.9u


[/ QUOTE ]

New YTD

3-2-1
+1.7u

[Lottery Larry]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins +4 (-110)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans +7.5 (-115)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Houston Texas +7 @ Carolina Panthers (-115)
Risking 1.15u to win 1u

YTD
1-1-1
+.9u


[/ QUOTE ]

New YTD

3-2-1
+1.2u

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Shouldn't you be at +1.6u? And why wasn't your first bet 2.2u to win 2 (making you a 0.8u winner for this week)?

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins +4 (-110)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans +7.5 (-115)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Houston Texas +7 @ Carolina Panthers (-115)
Risking 1.15u to win 1u

YTD
1-1-1
+.9u


[/ QUOTE ]

New YTD

3-2-1
+1.2u

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't you be at +1.6u? And why wasn't your first bet 2.2u to win 2 (making you a 0.8u winner for this week)?

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You are right except that since the week was a .8u winner and last weeks was a .9u winner, that leads to a YTD of +1.7u. Thanks for pointing that out.