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#1
08-31-2007, 10:50 PM
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drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
villain in this hand has peeled the flop before with drawless undercards and checked the turn and river UI.
Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 5 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $22.60 CO: $34.80 Button: $19.35 Guruman: $26.85 BB: $25 Pre-flop: (5 players) Guruman is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $2.25</font>, BB folds, Button calls. Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $9</font>, Guruman... so I should be repping a pair most of the time with this line, but button's raise signals that he's committing himself here. I clearly can't continue unless I have fold equity on a push because I don't have immediate odds to draw to the flush. Also, villain could be making a play with a worse flush draw. Easy fold? 
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#2
09-01-2007, 02:03 AM
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Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
Fold pf. If you decide to rr, rr much more, to $3.5. Nobody folds to a miniraise. Once you rr, this about as good a flop as you could hope for and this is a really easy 3bet ai.
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#5
09-01-2007, 10:07 AM
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Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
[ QUOTE ]
what's his range here that makes this such an easy push? [/ QUOTE ] Because of all the dead money you have so generously donated to the pot already, your equity when called needs to be 36% to break even and you have the nfd so you are more then priced in to get it in asap. Unless you think his range is sets and sets only, but that is a bit unlikely donīt you think? Vs hands like KQ and KK you are flipping and every once in a while he has a worse draw or even folds to your push. I happens.
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#7
09-01-2007, 11:31 AM
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Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you are more then priced in to get it in asap. [/ QUOTE ] Let's see your maths here. [/ QUOTE ] How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against. Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point?
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#8
09-01-2007, 11:40 AM
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Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] you are more then priced in to get it in asap. [/ QUOTE ] Let's see your maths here. [/ QUOTE ] How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against. Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point? [/ QUOTE ] and the math?
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#9
09-01-2007, 11:41 AM
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Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
After button's flop bet the pot is $12.75 and button has
got about $7 left. This means I have no fold equity and no implied odds. If I push I should expect to be called, and if I expect to be called I should expect to be in the lead. If villain holds K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (which is probably near the bottom of his range) I'm a 44/55 dog and should therefore not push. Really, the only hand I'm hoping villain has if I push is a worse flush draw that won't be able to get away at that point. I think that since villain's range tilts away from flush draws and towards made hands (since he committed himself with the flop bet) a push should be out of the question. Given that we shouldnt push, should we call? nope, again no later street fold equity, no immediate or implied odds. Villain wants to get it all in. I folded.
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