"splash the pot" strategy - xpost from b&m

[JaredL]

If it's correct to push any two against the field, it surely is if it's heads up.

Say it's heads-up and both have 750. If you push with any hand then the blind will pay 750 to win 1000 or 4:3 odds. He would need to win more than 3/7 or about 43% of the time. He's calling with any suited ten or above, any suited 9 other than 92, 85s and up, 75s,76s,65s. Offsuit he's calling with any jack or higher, T4+, 96+, 87 and 86. Also any pair. That is 72.5% of all hands according to pokerstove.

So 27.5% of the time you win 250. With 32o against the range above your equity is 31.1%. So your EV is:
250(.275) + .725(1000(.311) - 750(.689)) = -80.42.

In short, if the stacks are 750 and an extra 250 is put in and it's heads up it's -EV to push any two if that's what your opponent expects you to do and is calling appropriately. I didn't consider the blinds, which would slightly change his range and give you more when you won, but that won't be much of a change and the EV of pushing 32o will still certainly be negative.

If you are utg and push and everyone folds then it's essentially the same as the heads up case - the difference being that people have folded making it slightly more likely that the bb will have something to call with. Since 32o is a dog against every hand and does worse against two hands than one, you will only do worse if you are more likely to be called, which is more likely with more players at the table.

Jared

[cdlarmore]

I think you really need to conside the possibility with a loose call. Add the 250, then your push, people are getting good odds to call, and may realize your push is light due to the pot increase...if their halfway intelligent.


I push A6s+, A10+ any PP, KQo...


The real question should be....

You are on button, same pot, UTG Pushes all in, your looking down with...
A5s
AJo
66

Do you call?

[twoblacknines]

Jared I think your calling range is way too wide. These are daytime nitty grinders. I think aq+ 88+ is their calling range, and that is probably being generous. Perhaps it solely depends on your table and your read on it. In my case I was 99% sure they were not going to call off $850 lightly.

If I had $300 or less in my stack I don't think I would push, as it would be much more likely they would call.

cdlarmore, thats a good question. I think that would solely depend on my read of UTG. I hate calling low aces as I'm likely to be dominated. In fact, I would rather call 89s then a5s.

If he is a tricky player then I'm more likely to call. If its one of the old rocks, then I'm folding all but AK+ TT+

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's correct to push any two against the field, it surely is if it's heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree so far, but OP how many players were yet to act, exactly?

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
Jared I think your calling range is way too wide. These are daytime nitty grinders. I think aq+ 88+ is their calling range, and that is probably being generous. Perhaps it solely depends on your table and your read on it. In my case I was 99% sure they were not going to call off $850 lightly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Probably. I was taking the extreme case where you pushed with any 2 and they knew it. In reality they are much tighter. If they are as tight as you say then you are probably correct to push any two though I suspect it may be close since there is a fair chance that one of the guys behind you will have a calling hand given that range.