AFC Champion prop

[paperchamp]

Will the Chargers win the 2007 AFC championship?
Yes +134
No -149

I'm thinking of taking "no". My logic, it's real hard for a rookie QB to handle the added intensity of a playoff game. Example, Big Ben's first season with the Steelers. After cruising through the season with a 15-1 record the Steelers squeaked by the Jets in their first playoff game and then took a beating against the Pats. Plus the field is pretty strong with the Ravens, Pats, and Colts. Thoughts?

[King Yao]

I think SD is worth +127 to win the AFC. +127 is 44%. That means they'd have to be about 66.4% in each of their two games to get to 44% to win the AFC. 66.4% is roughly a 4 point favorite.

So, will they be (on average) 4 point favorites in their two home games in the playoffs? I think that's about right. They could be higher faves (if KC or NYJ sneak a win in the first round), or they could be lower faves (if IND, NE or BAL look extremely strong and SD does not), but I'm comfortable using 4 as my expected average line in their two games.

But with that said, it's still an estimation that I'd have to have a certain confidence interval around. If I think fair value is +127, I need some room to make a bet, like +147 or better. The line of +134 is not bettable for me.

[paperchamp]

Thanks for the input. Maybe I'd be better off fading the Chargers ATS.