Even I can beat stud!

[Bremen]

Looking at various PT data I was very surprised to find that stud hi is my most profitable game in HORSE (actually it might be razz, but I haven't split out the HORSE from pure razz tables). This led to me wondering who is playing in these games. Originally I assumed you'd have alot of stud/omaha players preying on the donks. Instead (given how curious people are to know how many times I reload a month) I now believe that it is mostly hold'em semi-pro's who think they can beat any game. Does anyone have a large enough sample size to say what the softer games are?

Oh yes, as for how bad some people are at stud I must give this example. Also to illustrate how bad I am, yesterday I would have limped 3rd instead of raising (thank you 7csfap!)

HORSE - 7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.10 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.10 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.10 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (9.10 BB)

Results:

Total pot $91 | Rake $3

Seat 5: [6s 2s 5h 3c 7d Qh 9h]

Hero: [6c Kc Ac Kd 5s 2c 4c] (a flush, Ace high)

Thats right, he can't even beat my Ace high board.

[Andy B]

I'm pretty sure he thought you were still playing razz, although you'd still win. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

With two clubs out, I'd lean towards limping and hoping.

[Bremen]

Last hand of the stud round. This is how he plays razz...


HORSE - Razz ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.60 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.60 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks

River - (5.60 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

Total pot: (9.60 BB)

Results:

Total pot $96 | Rake $3

Seat 5: [5c Ac Td 3c 8d Kc 2h]

Hero: [6c 7s 5d 3s 2d 3d 9d] (Lo: 7,6,5,3,2)

6th is probably FPS. But at the time I couldn't imagine he would be bad enough to call a bet.

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
But at the time I couldn't imagine he would be bad enough to call a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only one way to find out.

I've been five hands into a round and then realized I was playing the wrong game....

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
Only one way to find out.

[/ QUOTE ]
True.

Ok, but back to my orginal reason for posting (shouldn't have included the hand). Which game(s) in the rotation do you think are the softest Andy?

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
6th is probably FPS. But at the time I couldn't imagine he would be bad enough to call a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just call it horrible personally, lets talk it out to see why.

1) if he is stupid enough to call down, then he might be stupid enough to call a 6th street bet. He obviously has a T high, probably has A + baby in the hole 90% of the time.

2) Your goal is to induce a river bluff when you check street, that earns you one bet. But what happens if you bet and he calls, then improves on 7th again - thats 2 bets. If you get the river bluff and you raise, he will never call. Conversely when he catches good and you raise, he will almost always call. In short you have a significantly smalled expected value when you induce a bluff compared to the times that you bet 6th street.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[RainierBob]

Help me understand the thinking here. What is questionable about a raise? The two clubs out somewhat diminish the value of the 3 flush, and it's unknown how many callers there may be without a raise -- the A will somewhat discourage them. The A (and K) are the highest cards out, and Hero will in all likelihood have to lead 4th St. Raising functions as a steal/semi-steal, and there is a good chance of taking the pot on 4th with a bet. Isn't the raise good?

[Andy B]

The raise is fine, but

(1) This is a low-ante game, so there's less value in "stealing."

(2) With that Ace in the door, you're likely to be out of position on future betting rounds.

(3) Your flush cards are a little dead.

(4) You do have a couple of big cards to pair, but big pairs aren't as formidable in multi-way pots as they are in heads-up pots.

Really, there's nothing wrong with limping in. If fourth comes down badly, you can check and probably take a free card. If it comes down good, you'll probably get action.

[SittingBull]

He thought he had a STR.
Andy is correct. U do not have much money in the the pot to struggle for;hence,a steal is debatable. However,U do not want to be extremely readable. So a raise every now and then is better than NOT raising at all in this 3rd Str. spot.
HappyPokering, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull

[SittingBull]

the smaller the ante in relation to the small bet,the less frequently U try to steal. This universal law governs any form of poker. However,infrequent deviations from this law might be appropriate in order not to be very readable.
SittingBull