Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)

[maxtower]

After reading goofy's analysis, it looks like you can profitably play suited connectors 45s - JTs with the 5/10 rule considering the implied odds.
One issue at hand is that the 5/10 rule assumes a reasonble chance you'll net an opponent's stack when you hit your hand. This is fine for the made hands because all of them are beating an over pair. The combo draws are not as good because if you push and your opponent folds, you are getting the correct implied odds to call preflop with the 5/10 rule in the first place. If you push and he calls, you'll hit your hand around 50-60% of the time. With the money already in the pot and the fold equity you might have, going all in with a combo draw is a fine play, however I question whether you have the correct implied odds preflop to get yourself into that situation. There is some math that needs to be worked out here, but it appears suited connectors are not as easy a call as pocket pairs using the 5/10 rule.
A good play may be to call with these in position only. That gives you an added advantage when your opponent checks the flop to you.

[carnivalhobo]

12.6% chance of flopping a made hand or a big draw

10.8% chance of flopping a set with a PP, shouldnt we be calling the same raises (maybe more) with sc's as we are with PPs (which is most).

[maddog2030]

I wrote a program to do these exact calcs over a year ago, and came out to the same ~25% you did, so your math is probably good (some of my numbers were also verified by BruceZ of the probability forum).

Because I wrote a program to do this, I ran through a number of other types of hands that you may be interested in. For instance, suited one-gappers come out to 23% to flop OESD+,2pair+. So basically, most anytime you're willing to play a suited connector, you should be willing to play a similar suited one-gapper also.

Summary of hands:
Suited connectors: 25%
Suited one-gappers: 23%
Suited two-gappers: 18%
Unsuited connectors: 17%
Suited aces: 17%

Note: This isn't the end-all, be-all, as it doesn't take into account draws to the nuts, etc. But it's a relatively decent gauge on the strength of those various types of hands to each other.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
10.8% chance of flopping a set with a PP, shouldnt we be calling the same raises (maybe more) with sc's as we are with PPs (which is most).

[/ QUOTE ]

As he pointed out, your equity edge when you "hit" isn't nearly as big so your implied odds aren't nearly as high (as well as your draws are often obvious). A collary to this is that position becomes more important in the play of those hands.

These two factors combined mean you can't be playing in more pots with them than PPs based on the numbers you quoted alone.

[binions]

I looked at this long ago. My posts are somewhere in the archives.

If you factor out flopping flush draws on paired boards, and straight draws on paired and 3-flush boards against, I get 23.5% or 3.25:1 against flopping 2 pair or better made hands or at least an 8 out draw for suited max stretch 0-gap connectors.

21.3% or 3.7:1 against for max stretch 1-gap suited connecttors.

18.5% or 4.4:1 against for max stretch 2-gap suited connectors.

[maddog2030]

I used to just subtract ~2% to account for those situations where you flop a draw but it's on a bad board or whatever. Looks like that was a pretty good guesstimate. Thanks for those.

[bhudson]

[ QUOTE ]
Unsuited connectors: 17%

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa... I think you just helped me plug a huge leak.

[goofyballer]

[ QUOTE ]
Suited aces: 17%

[/ QUOTE ]

That too. People generally talk about suited aces in the same way they talk about SCs, when suited aces appear to be much weaker except for two things:
1. Flush draws are always to the nuts
2. They have three more outs on their flush draws when up against KK- than SCs do.

I wonder if those two properties make up for the fact that you're flopping good hands/draws 1 in 6 times instead of 1 in 4.

[bhudson]

My take on suited aces is they are fantastic to raise with and terrible to call raises with unless the implied odds are huge. Always been that way. However I used to consider unsuited connectors as negligibly weaker than suited connectors on the order of 1 or 2%.

[Antinome]

vnh