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#11
06-28-2006, 04:28 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight. [/ QUOTE ] Good point, and the intially raise is a min-raise too.....hmmmmm. Make me want to get involved a bit more. I think a big part of the problem is that we have fold equity vs. the wrong hands when we push. This is a tough spot. What do you think of the 1/2 pot bet into 2 callers on this board? Weak or strong? I'm undecided... Regards, Woodguy 
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#12
06-28-2006, 04:37 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand. [/ QUOTE ] I decided that, against one caller, you are facing AQ. Against 2 callers, you are facing AQ and 99 (a set). Against AQ, you win 45% of the time. Against AQ and 99, you win 27% of the time. 30% of the time they fold: you end up with 51k 22.5% of the time, one caller and hero wins: 80k 27.5% of the time, one caller and hero loses: 0k 5.5% of the time, two callers and hero wins: 108k 14.5% of the time, two callers and hero loses: 0k total: 39k versus 28k if I fold. Still, I think 30% fold is probably too generous.
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#13
06-28-2006, 04:45 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
you are facing AQ and 99 (a set). [/ QUOTE ] If I have a set here, I jam it, not flat call, too many cards come on the turn that I really don't want to see, and I get called by the hands I want to call. (pair + draw, who are really only drawing to 8 outs that I have re-draws against, overpairs who put me on a draw etc) Regards, Woodguy
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#14
06-28-2006, 04:53 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
What range of hands would villain smooth call a min raise and C-bet with? Villain would pop a set; quite possibly two pair. Would he smooth call a str8 draw or top pair...maybe top pair no kicker? Geez, it's a tough one.
I still think against two opponents, your "ten" outs are really compromised. If you're villain how do you play KJ?
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#17
06-28-2006, 04:55 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you're villain how do you play KJ? [/ QUOTE ] Fold pf. [/ QUOTE ] hmphf....good point, that's what I would have done. I'm sooo confused. Excellent thought provoking post btw.
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#18
06-28-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
Of course if MP1 doesnt have a set or 2pair, that begs the question, what could possibly be smooth calling the flop bet except for a made straight? A straight draw I guess, but even there the possibilities would be AJ, QJ, JJ, JT, J9, KQ. That's not the greatest group of hands against Hero's JT.
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#19
06-28-2006, 05:01 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you're villain how do you play KJ? [/ QUOTE ] Fold pf. [/ QUOTE ] You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?
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#20
06-28-2006, 05:08 PM
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Re: Straight draw on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you're villain how do you play KJ? [/ QUOTE ] Fold pf. [/ QUOTE ] You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I'm also going to fold it if I am UTG+1 opening the pot. Both players were EP, with lots of players left to act, holding a hand that can be easily dominated.
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