Straight draw on the flop

[jcm4ccc]

Push? Fold? Fold pf? Both players seem solid, nothing out of line. Final two tables of $50 tournament. My stack is a little below average. 15 players left, I'm in 9th place.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
Ante: t75
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t400
UTG+1: t86424
MP1: t88403
CO: t58903
Button: t19709
SB: t19478
Hero: t32031

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t4000</font>, MP1 calls t4000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t4150)</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls t2000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t8150)</font>.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t12075, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets t5800</font>, MP1 calls t5800,
<font color="#aaaaaa">(pot is t23675, hero has t28031)</font> <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

[rockin]

I'm torn on the preflop call. Odds are so tempting here, just hate calling with 16bb stack. We fold postflop we will have 14bb stack.

Postflop this is either shove or fold. Pot is already like 24k and you have 28k. I'm thinking a shove isn't that awful with possibly 10 outs and a reasonable amount of times you win the pot here (maybe 30-40%).

JCM you're usually pretty quick with EV calcs. Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[bobbycharles]

These decisions are the toughest for me. I'm more concerned about MP1's smooth call x2 than I am about the UTG+1 PF min raise and c-bet. Considering both are big stacks, I think I step aside and let them battle it out. You need a K for the str8, but it's not the nuts. Either villain could easily have the KJ already and the best you can hope for is a split. This would nullify a T (and 8)as an out too. You're late in the tourney, your table position stack-wise will be unchanged and you're still a 10+... retreat.

[DireWolf]

i would shove here
then i would close my eyes and spike an 8 on the river.

[bgoalie35]

I would really lean towards the shove. I can't fold with that much in the pot and so many outs. I'd be really interested in that EV calc too though.

[woodguy]

I usually fold here.

If the pot was HU vs. EP raiser then:

You have 45% equity vs. AA maybe some fold equity
You have 30% equity vs. KK less fold equity than against AA
You have 25% equity vs. QQ No fold equity
You have 78% equity vs. AK + fold equity you don't want.
You have 45% equity vs. AQ + iffy fold equity (probably none)

Of course the UTG raiser may have 66 and is just taking a shot, but its an ugly board to take a shot at. His less than 1/2 pot bet does look a little weak.

Throw in a cold call that may be a made straight, but probably a draw+ pair that may hold 1 of your outs or splits with you, and your equity falls fast.

I jam HU, but the cold caller is probably eating too much of my equity fo get involved, because if you do it for the rest of your chips and you *probaby* not getting the right price.

I could be off a little, I'm freaking tired today.

**Looked at it again and I really want to jam with the weak-ass 1/2 pot bet and call, it just screams PLEASE RAISE ME OFF MY HAND from EP and RAISE ME OFF MY DRAW from cold caller, but dammit I still think I have to fold because when I'm wrong here its ugly and my stack is workable.

*****Looked at it again, and if you call and peel one getting 4-1 that leaves you with 12BB's and isn't terrible, but you have to get another bet to make the call right, and if you hit you may not get paid, might get split, or god forbid makes someone a higher straight.

Bleh....I fold, bleh. meh.

Regards,
Woodguy

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]

Bleh....I fold, bleh. meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

I also fold preflop.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I'll work something out, but if you really think they're folding 30% of the time, this is hugely profitable.

[JCool]

[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is just to give us a baseline.