Stop and Go with AK

[stevepa]

To those who don't like it, is there anything bad that can come from doing it? I really don't think so. If he calls everytime it's the same as if you pushed preflop. If he ever folds then SNG>push preflop.

Steve

[AceLuby]

If he does fold when you hit your A or K, then you lose that 4k, are you planning on folding an any flop. No, so you might as well get his chips in the middle instead of giving him a chance to get away.

[MikeSmith]

this is silly the man is pot stuck from the get go i call with literally anything, plus its an easy push preflop

[AceLuby]

so push > SNG, if the flop does come AAK, he may get away from it.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
If he does fold when you hit your A or K, then you lose that 4k, are you planning on folding an any flop. No, so you might as well get his chips in the middle instead of giving him a chance to get away.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even if you do make TPTK, his win percentage is close to his pot odds. You might also get him to fold some hands where you are not that big a favorite. So I think the stop n go is the best play, even if you rarely get a fold.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
To those who don't like it, is there anything bad that can come from doing it? I really don't think so. If he calls everytime it's the same as if you pushed preflop. If he ever folds then SNG>push preflop.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Steve, I think it's more likely that Villain has a low pocket pair and folds on an AKQ flop or something than Villain actually holding any 2 cards that manage to fold any flop where no aces or kings come out.

I can't imagine a scenario where Villain holds 2 cards that fold on a flop without an ace or king. Even if the flop is monotone of a suit other than ours, I don't think we can scare him into folding because there's just not enough chips left to "bluff" him.

On the other hand, I can imagine him folding a few hands where he will just think there is no possible way he's ahead like baby pairs and low suited connectors on a really unfavorable flop...but that situation pretty much requires Hero to have made at least aces or kings on the flop.

[AceLuby]

Point is:

We are never folding once we call
They may fold an unfavorable flop (rarely, but sometimes)

Since we are NEVER folding, and they fold ONLY on an unfavorable flop SNG is a worse play than pushing PF.

Let's say he'll fold on 1% of the flops where we eventually win (very small) and say we're coinflipping (AK vs 22-QQ). (I know they have a slight edge in this case, but let's say it is a true coinflip)

Pushing:
50% of the time we win 18k +9k
50% of the time we lose 16k -8k

SNG:
99% * 50% of the time we win 18k 8.91k
100% * 50% of the time we lose 16k 8.00k
1% * 50% of the time we win 14k .07k

push = +1k
sng = +.98k

So pushing is better than the stop n go. (however small it is better)

[betgo]

When villain folds he will generally be incorrect to do so given the pot odds he is getting. Therefore a SNG increases hero's cEV and is the correct play.

Your analysis assumes hero always would win hands that villain folds to SNG. That is not correct.

[Moose747]

The question isn't whether villain ever folds after the flop. It's whether villain ever makse a mistake after the flop. Getting 9-1 or so on his money, it doesn't make sense for villain ever to fold to our bet, regardless of his hand and regardless of the board. So if we believe there is some chance he folds, the SNG is a better play.

[AceLuby]

What hands is he folding that he doesn't think he's beat. Maybe w/ 2 of T-Q, but I don't think so. I think he's only folding hands that he truely believes are crushing him (even a sole broadway card (excluding an A) would probaly call) The only times I see him folding is when it is AKx, AQx, or KQx.

Point being my analysis is simplified, but it is for a reason. He may fold the best hand, but not nearly as often as he folds the worst hand (you have to agree w/ that). He may also fold on more than 1% of the flops. But I don't really care about that, it pretty much washes itself out. I'm just going to have to say that I respectfully disagree and in this situation it is +EV to push as opposed to the SNG when he raises this much.