Stop and Go with AK

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Every time we give villain proper odds to call it is NOT profitable for him and therefore -EV for us. I can think of quite few examples. This thread being one (i.e. AA4 flop and villain with 98s for example). Another being we flop quads but villain is drawing dead to a flush. Why would giving him proper odds to draw to a flush be -EV? Why would it be profitable for him?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's some confusion over the term "proper odds." When Steve et al say they want Villain to fold getting proper odds, they don't mean when he THINKS he is getting proper odds but is actually drawing dead, they mean when he is actually getting proper odds with whatever he is holding versus whatever hand Hero has made.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry Foucault, I don't agree with this. First, we don't know what villain has. Second, he doesn't know what we have.

[/ QUOTE ]

jesus, when we make a push hoping for villain to make a mistake it is based on his percieved range. If we know for example that his range is any 2, and it's +EV to call with any 2 but we give him a chance to make a mistake by folding, that is clearly gaining for us.

[NYWalker]

steve, seke, others
Qustions:
1. Why hero didn't push preflop? Only 4k more for seeing five cards. Also, villian will be all-in on the flop anyway. No one would walk away 30k pot by not calling/betting 4k.

2. Why villian didn't move all-in preflop? What his ranges - I put him on monster hands - Ace Ace?? King King ??? (AK, he'd push preflop) Looks like he wanted to get action at least from SB or BB.

3. If you would, or anyone would, please tell me what Stop aNd Go (SNG) is. (I'm new to this site)

IMO, pushing on the flop is OK since it only costs 4K to win 30K, I can push 8 times and break even if win one time. I'm pretty sure villian will call regardless since 1. it's only 4K; 2. villian is ahead before the flop and on the flop (that's why he only bet 12000 instead of push 16000 preflop)


Thanks

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the 4 scenarios:

1. We push preflop and he loses: our stack is 62k
2. We SNG, he folds and would have lost: our stack is 58k
Result: We lose 4k chips

VERSUS

1. We push preflop and he wins: our stack is 26k
2. We SNG, he folds, and he would have won: our stack is 58k
Result: We gain 32k

So the question boils down to this: When the SNG is successful and he folds, is he folding the losing hand greater than 8X more often than the winning hand, or is he folding the losing hand less than 8X more often than the winning hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he EVER folds the winning hand, given any (reasonable) percentage where he costs us EV by folding the losing hand, this is worth doing even when he folds the losing hand so often that it's closely -$EV. In fact, it's way more than 8x, because sometimes he folds 44 on a KQ9 flop when he would have sucked out.

Given that it's the bubble it's like buying large stack insurance and will be thoroughly worth it just in the next 3 hands.

[jcm4ccc]

Villian had AK. He called. We split.