Does this hand make sense?

jcm4ccc · #1 06-07-2006, 04:52 PM

PS $10 tournament, 10-minute levels. 99 pays, approximately 125 left. BB has 2900 after posting. Table has been fairly tight.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
(Ante: t100)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t17935
UTG+1: t18494
MP1: t22046
MP2: t18622
Hero: t19206
Button: t12276
SB: t11247
BB: t4949

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t19106</font>

Sh@i'tan · #2 06-07-2006, 04:57 PM

I don't like it, bb is very short and my be making some unexpected calls.

jcm4ccc · #3 06-07-2006, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it, bb is very short and my be making some unexpected calls.

[/ QUOTE ] My hope is that bb folds, but that's unrealistic. My expectation is that bb calls, and everybody else folds.

AceLuby · #4 06-07-2006, 05:12 PM

A raise to 5k does the same thing, w/out risking your whole stack. With that sized raise the other two will essentially be risking their entire stack to play. IMO this was move wasn't thought out, you will get called by the other two if they run into a monster (JJ+, AK) and you're crippled.

Moose747 · #5 06-07-2006, 05:17 PM

You really want to play J6 against a random hand?

Fold preflop.

odellthurman · #6 06-07-2006, 05:17 PM

I usually put a lot of weight on the BB's pokerdb stats in this situation. If he hasn't cashed a lot, or usually just limps into the money but gets no further, I am much more likely to push. I haven't noticed this type of analysis mentioned, and I've been meaning to ask if anyone else does this. Maybe I'm wrong.

Sh@i'tan · #7 06-07-2006, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it, bb is very short and my be making some unexpected calls.

[/ QUOTE ] My hope is that bb folds, but that's unrealistic. My expectation is that bb calls, and everybody else folds.

[/ QUOTE ]Ok, that makes more sense eyeballing the math you are getting about 1.35:1 when he calls. Add in the itme he folds and j6 should only have to hold up 30% of the time for this to be +cEV, but button/sb can wake up with hands also. And your image is going to be shot after you are called which is another reason i don't like it.

Imrahil · #8 06-07-2006, 05:21 PM

J6 against a random hand is about 48%. Since the blinds are so high, the all-in isn't a bad move. If the BB folds, then that's even better.

AceLuby · #9 06-07-2006, 05:31 PM

Who's worried about the BB? Surely you shouldn't. I'm worried about the two that can CRIPPLE my stack. Std betting works better here, what raises have stolen in the past?

Moose747 · #10 06-07-2006, 05:35 PM

the point of stealing with a marginal hand is that you have high fold equity, so you assume modest risk that someone wakes up with AQ and calls, knowing that you usually end up with blinds and antes. In this case, you're assuming all the risk of stealing from cutoff, with very little hope of winning without showdown. your equity when BB calls may be positive, but it's not high enough to justify the risk. easy fold.

Also, any raise is pot-commiting, so there's no reason to raise and not push.