winning 3.5 bb/100 over 30K hands

[silver book]

If I am winning 3.5 BB/ 100 over 30K hands, how likely is it that i will be at least a 3 BB/100 winner in the long run?

[Dak9885]

Only time will tell.....

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am winning 3.5 BB/ 100 over 30K hands, how likely is it that i will be at least a 3 BB/100 winner in the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]
That depends on the distribution of win rates of players (who would ask that question).

In words, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence (or a lot more evidence). Mathematics won't tell you how extraordinary it is to have a win rate of 3 BB/100 or more, so it's not clear how much evidence you need to reject an ordinary win rate plus luck.

An example of what you can do with mathematics is to say how likely it is for someone with a standard deviation of 15 BB/100 would be at most 0.5 BB/100 lucky over 30000 hands (it would be about 0.5 /(15/sqrt(300)) ~ 0.58 standard deviations above the mean, and that or lower happens to a normally distributed random variable about 72% of the time. You can use this to update a distribution of players. If you know the distribution of win rates of poker players, you can update it to produce a new distribution which takes into account the 30k hands of evidence.

[ehafner]

30k hands isn't enough. You could be running really hot, or hell even cold. I'd get www.pokerevsoftware.com to help find your true winrate, and just keep playin.