pp on a paired board - some handreading going on

[Guruman]

here’s a hand.

villain in this hand had shown the ability to make blocking bets and fold when those bets got raised. He’d also been openlimping in late p about half of the hands he played, and usually would fold to a donk out of the blinds from me. He had built a stack through not incompetent play, but he wasn’t exactly intimidating me either, and I still suck at nl.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $56.20
UTG+1: $42.50
CO: $25.45
Guruman: $49.10
SB: $24.75
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Guruman is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls.

standard raise and villain calls after his limp from ep. I’m thinking the normal speculative range of pps, AXs, some suited connectors, etc. Not sure how offsuit broadways would fit into his range here.


Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $5.75</font>, Guruman calls $3.75 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $10.1)</font>.

I made a fairly hefty cont bet there, but I wanted to get some value when he had a pp and was going to see another street. On a pure bluff I’ll probably bet a little less because he will probably fold his air to a cont bet of almost any size.

when I got checkraised it looked like
-a Q
-a PP
-a flush draw
-a pure bluff because I raised from the button initially and should have a wide range.

Given that we were still so deep I figured that I could navigate a way to showdown vs his pairs and bluffs and force him to win a smaller pot with a Q. If he decided to run a BIG bluff on a later street, then more power to him I guess. I’ll have to pick that kind of line off with an actual hand.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($13.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $9.25</font>, Guruman calls $9.25 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $23.1)</font>.

the turn brings a non-flushing undercard to my pair and I’m looking at a 3/4 psb. I’ve got $44ish behind before making a decision. Weighing my options here is tricky for me. I don’t want to see an overcard or diamond catch on the river. On the overcard front given the flop range that I’ve assigned him, I’m only afraid of that if he’s bluffing with a hand that has an overcard like A8s, KJo or something like that. I’m too deep to push and have it not turn my hand into a pure bluff, and because enough of villain’s own range is a pure bluff here I don’t want to stop that bluff on the river.

Also, I’m playing my hand in a way that is in sync with holding a pocket pair when I call, since a naked Q will likely raise to protect against the flush. I don’t know that villain is astute enough to recognize that and bluff me better on the river, but it may be a factor.

In the end I decided a call and river re-eval was the best use of my position. Villain had shown an ability to put $$ in the pot, the turn card didn’t change his range any, and I may be able to check it down on the river. I also find it a little unlikely for a flush draw to take this line because it would much rather price itself a cheap card there on the turn after I call the flop checkraise.

If an overcard and a big bet come on the river then so be it.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($32.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $4.25</font>, Guruman calls $4.25 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $36.6)</font>.

River’s another undercard, villain bets much smaller here, and I have an easy call. Raising will re-open the betting to better hands and fold out worse ones which is dumb. Folding is dumb too.

Results:
Final pot: $40.85

how’d I do? [please don’t offer alternate lines without thought processes behind them, thx!]

[Peter Harris]

Yo Guru,
I like the PFR, of course.

The flop is good and yeah, I would put him on any of these:
Qx
Flush Draw
A3
pocket pair &lt;TT
AA/KK (as a "slowplay" PF)

And you're good against most of them. My standard line would be call the c/r and fire a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn if checked to.

When villain bets the turn we have to wonder whether he's the kind of player to bet a diamond draw @ 2/3 pot size, that's not a great play. I'd refine the range to Qx, pocket pairs 66-99 and maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think the question is here can you raise the turn and not be committed if he comes over the top - since when he does, you're usually toast.

So if i think i can fold to a turn reraise i will raise there - also because if villain calls the raise and checks the river i can choose the free SD or see if the bus to valuetown is on schedule.

As played the river is a must call, but i think the turn is the key street. Some may say push back on the flop but i think your equity changes a lot on the turn card (from dangerous to dominant if a non AKJ3 non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits).

PS I think 99 is a possibility given the play and the river bet is squeezing some BBs out of you with his belated boat. Maybe. But we all know the folly of narrowing his range to one type of hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Guruman]

pete, would the purpose of a late street raise be to push out a better pp? I find that unlikely given the fact that villain could still put that kind of line on a flush draw.

[also, his actual hand ended up falling outside of your range there [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]]

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
pete, would the purpose of a late street raise be to push out a better pp? I find that unlikely given the fact that villain could still put that kind of line on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't quite follow, a raise by us or him? If you mean our raise on the turn it's because my expected equity has shot up and i can raise to punish him drawing his diamond and/or to a higher pair. If he 3b's me then i am usually expecting to be way behind. I don't think my turn raise will push out any higher PP than exactly JJ.

[ QUOTE ]
[also, his actual hand ended up falling outside of your range there [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]]

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol thats because i suck.