river bluff vs. 2p2er

[AE6]

this is pretty sick fly when he calls with 88....but yah i really doubt he's ever folding a queen here

[ikestoys]

if he folded, you had the best hand...

squeeze pre 100%

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
this is pretty sick fly when he calls with 88....but yah i really doubt he's ever folding a queen here

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure the villain will fold a queen (fwiw, if he doesn't, he loses major gbucks). if i'm not confident that he dumps a queen, i don't even consider making this play.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
if he folded, you had the best hand...

squeeze pre 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

great post

edit: do you pay off every time a villain takes a non-standard line? from reading your posts, it seems to me that thinking, trappy tags would have a field day against you.

[djj6835]

If his range is something like KQ,QJ,88,99 and some small percentage of bluffs can we even call profitably here?

[Julio Dalehurst]

I like the C/R river for pure metagame purposes, it enhances your tricky image. Also, if hes decent, hes folding most Q's in his range (hard to put him on TPTK, or even good kicker)

[Snipe]

Really think that if villain is betting a queen here, he's calling a raise. If he uses this line for pot control and draws a reasonable amount of the time, he has to know that his line get's looked up a lot and will be more apt to call your CR.

[goofyballer]

Whoever villain is, can you ask him not to make such retardo bet sizes? $16.80? Does he think he's being cute?

Also, I would call river and expect your hand to be good a fair amount. I guess you've been talking to terp too much cause I know this is a spot where he feels like he needs to bluff.

I don't think a queen folds here as much as you want him to. In villain's spot I'd be like "lol, river checkraises from TAGs are bluffs, I HAVE TAWP PAIR, I CAWL." Sure, I'll get owned by tricky trappy TAGs once before I jot down a note that they're capable of playing weird, but they're also owning themselves to a certain degree when they miss value by playing this way (which will happen when trying to trap) and I'll just adjust against them in the future. Kind of a "I'm not really gonna put this 55/5/0.8 player on a bluff until he shows me he can bluff" type of situation.

I also squeeze pre because I love variance. Actually I hate variance but I still think it's super +EV just because your hand is sooper strong and he'll probably try to blow you off more than his fair share of flops. EDIT: Oops, 29/14 opened not button...hrm that makes it closer. Probably still squeeze.

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
i thought this was clear, but the river bet is a pure bluff. he is never calling with worse.

i felt that the vast majority of his range was one-pair hands. some of them beat me, some of them don't. my thinking was that if i called, i'd beat stuff like 99 but get towned by stuff like QJ. however, if i raised, he'd fold his queens, and he'd also fold his 99-type hands, which is obviously not a bad thing (and it'd decrease my green line/blue line gap! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

edit: i'm not disputing that calling might've been profitable. if it was, though, that doesn't mean that raising wasn't better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your thinking and there's certainly some validity to it. I guess if you're really that confident that he's folding a Q here then the bluff is at least as good if not better than just calling.

I just know that I'm probably not folding any hand I'm value betting with on this river very often (read: never) which I guess would be good for you cause I'd value bet 99 a good bunch of the time.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you've been talking to terp too much cause I know this is a spot where he feels like he needs to bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol at that lagfish. fwiw, i don't even think he loved the river play when i sent him the hand on aim.

about playing trappy: point taken, but if i have a set in this spot, i think check-calling the flop bet and checking the turn is a great line, probably better than cr the flop with the dynamic we had.

about 3betting preflop: whatever, so elementary that i don't consider it worth discussing.