Typicall spot in BB

[Borys313]

PokerStars 15/30 Omaha/8 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, SB calls, Hero ???


I know I have the best hand right now but nearly all turn cards look bad. So whats your plan?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I have the best hand right now but nearly all turn cards look bad. So whats your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]Borys - Fold, unless you're calling for table image purposes.

If you call the raise, planning to check/fold on the third betting round unless the turn is a king, ten, or deuce here is what happens:<ul type="square">
• 38/45 you'll lose the one small bet you expended to call the raise.
• 4/45 you'll have a full house that will win about 92.6% and have to split with low about 42%.
• 3/45 you'll have three pairs which will go on to make a full house 13.3% and a scooper 93.8% of that.

-1*38/45
-3*4/45*0.074
+14*4/45*0.926*0.58
+5.5*4/45*0.926*0.42
-3*3/45*0.867
-5*3/45*0.133*0.062
+14*3/45*0.133*0.938

-0.844
-0.020
+0.668
+0.190
-0.173
-0.003
+0.116[/list]Total is -0.066

It's close. Forget the tens and it's worse:<ul type="square">-1*41/45
-3*4/45*0.074
+14*4/45*0.926*0.58
+5.5*4/45*0.926*0.42

-0.911
-0.020
+0.668
+0.190[/list]Total is -0.073, worse, if you fold when the turn is a ten.

I thought you'd have a + e.v. when I started this, but you don't.

I did three three-handed simulations, all with Hero's hand versus two opponents with random cards. One sim was with a king on the turn (best for Hero), one with a deuce on the turn (next best for Hero and close to kings), and one with a ten on the turn.

You have to suspect that Hero's real opponents here have better than random hands and have some sort of flop fit, making Hero's chances actually worse than as simulated.

It's close enough with two opponents that it would surely have a positive e.v. with three or more opponents.

Buzz

[Borys313]

First I was thinking its close but actually its not. And your calculations prove it.

If we are up vs 2 low clubs are equity sucks, and probably the worst thing is that we are forced to check call the way if we plan to play it so villian will almost never make any mistake.

I have encountered such situations countless times and still play them bad.

[jsbjoe]

come come. Who among us folds when, e.g., a Nine hits on 4 ?

[rando]

I fold, not as sure as you are that my hand is best on the flop... I guess you had good reads here? No K3, 33, etc? What are chances you are ahead without being quite vulnerable to a one-card scoop on 4th or 5th?