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#1
11-19-2007, 07:36 PM
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NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
Hey.
I was wondering if anyone else has been making these correlated parlays? For yesterday on games with a spread >or = to 25% of the total the plays of fav+ over and dog+ under went 4-0. I haven't been playing these every week but I have gone like 9-1 this season on these. Anyone have an easy way to check the last couple seasons to see how well these parlays work? I am guessing that just like in college with the favs/overs and dogs/unders of > 33% that these hit quite a bit. Since totals are lower in the NFL I play these at the 25% mark instead. Any input is appreciated. Looks like around 5 games might qualify for this week also. -Brendan 
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#2
11-19-2007, 09:14 PM
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
Brendan,
how do you decide to take the fave+over or dog+under side of this? Wouldn't the dog+under on Buff have lost?
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#3
11-19-2007, 10:02 PM
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
You play both fav+over and dog+under just like a lot of people had been playing on the college games.
1 unit to win 2.6 units on each side. So you either win 1.6 units or lose 2 units on these plays. -Brendan
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#4
11-19-2007, 10:11 PM
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
The 4 games this week were.
Pats/Bills -16 o/u 47 Pitt/NYJ -10 o/u 40 KC/Indy -14.5 o/u 41.5 Car/GB -10 o/u 37 Betting each fav/o and dog/u for 1 unit and you would have been +6.4 units. 2 favs+overs won and 2 dogs+unders won. -Brendan
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#5
11-19-2007, 11:23 PM
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
Brendan,
I've been doing a bit of research on correlated parlays, actually. It shouldn't be too hard to put the data together from Covers and backtest it for a couple of years. Hopefully I'll find some more time to gather the data with what free time I have left. Thanks for shining a light on it.
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#6
11-19-2007, 11:24 PM
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
[ QUOTE ]
Brendan, I've been doing a bit of research on correlated parlays, actually. It shouldn't be too hard to put the data together from Covers and backtest it for a couple of years. Hopefully I'll find some more time to gather the data with what free time I have left. Thanks for shining a light on it. [/ QUOTE ] Samples are relatively small IIRC and checking edge on these is pretty ew.
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