CRAI turn with KK when Ace falls

[TheRenaissance]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $60.60
BB: $53.55
UTG: $61.05
CO: $35.80
BTN: $40.85

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 41/17/2.5 over 100ish hands. Preflop and flop is standard. On the turn I was busy at another table, timed out, but got back in time and decided to crai and pray - on a whim.

After the hand I wasnt sure how I felt about it. I see both benefits and drawbacks. You?</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.20</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.90</font>, 3 folds, BTN calls $3.70

Flop: ($10.70) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, BTN calls $8.00

Turn: ($26.70) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $16.80</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $47.70</font>

Villain has about 11$ left at this point.

[Asheh]

Its a strong move i agree, but the cold call preflop does indicate a weak ace or even AJ with the flop call. Its a bit of strange move and considering villains post-flop aggression im not sure if this is a very good move.

[Snaaak]

What hand would fold here that beats you? And what hands that you beat would call? I don't really see that value in this move...

[boycalledroy]

If villain has any ace and any brain cells he should call on the odds he is getting!

[TheRenaissance]

FWIW I am not bluffing.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand would fold here that beats you?

[/ QUOTE ]
None. If I do this it is purely for value.

[ QUOTE ]
And what hands that you beat would call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain is getting about 5:1, so he should call me with any flush or straight draw. I think there is a decent chance he will call me with Jx as well, having put in so much of his stack.

Note that I showed weakness on the turn by timing out when the ace fell, so I think (semi-)bluffs are a significant part of his range. Also, there is no real reason to think villain has an ace here except specifically AJ/A9/A5/AK/Adxd. That is quite a few hands, but I believe MOST of the hands villain gets to the turn with DO NOT contain an ace.

Now consider our alternatives on the turn:
Check-fold is terribly weak tight.
Check-call commits us.
Bet-fold is meh, as now we will be the ones gettting 5:1.

Also, and perhaps most importantly, if we do lead out on the turn we limit villain's range to almost exclusively hands that beat us. So bet-call does not seem like a good option either.

I know my line is not standard, but I think there some value in it. If anyone thinks another line is better, I would like to see the reasoning in more detail than what I've seen so far.

[Bonesy]

I really like your analysis on this hand. A couple of things though would lead me not to make this play.

1) Sets are also in his range here of course.

2) Villain's bet size appears to be a value bet.

3) You are assuming that your almost time-out has invited a semibluff which is possible. But does this villain make a bet like this with a draw? Some villains will of course and some happily take the free card and go all in on a missed river.

It's a very tricky spot and I agree with your analysis of your options none of which are very appealing. I'm on the nitty side, so it may be c/f for me, but your line may be best versus this villain.

[danny8]

v.tough spot...

(whenever i try copy/paste stove calculations it comes up all over the place...)


99+, 7c7s, AdKd, AdQd, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, Kd9d, K8s, QJs, QdTd, Q9s, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo

anyway you're ~60% favourite with the range above, thats what i think that guy would raise then call a 3bet with, and then call your cbet. (threw in a single combo of 77 just incase hes putting you on ak)

theres $27 in the pot, villin has $28 left.

i reckon when checked to he bets all his Ax hands, maybe some J hands and most of his [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands.

if you bet i think he folds most of his [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and some of his J hands. He'll always call w/ Ax and sets and prolly half the time with his Js.

if you lead and he calls/shoves i'd imagine you're a slight dog, but not by that much.

I think it all comes down to whether or not you think he'll bet or not. the A is a pretty good scare card, but hes gotta be scared of you having it to. if you dont htink he'll semi bluff or just plain bluff or bet a J then i'd rather bet/call rather than c/r since if he checks behind you're in a really crappy spot on the river no matter what card comes (unless obv a K) with no idea where you are.

seems kinda agro after 100 hands so i think c/r is ok. i think its close between that and b/c... c/f is far too weak against that range.

[TheRenaissance]

Thank you for the replies, especially Bonesy and danny8. I think danny8 is a bit off when he says that if we lead and villain shoves we will only be a slight dog - we will be drawing to 2 outs most of the time, and when we are ahead villain will have 9+ outs a lot.

But whatever. Villain called with his JTo and inspired me to rethink my stack-a-donk strategy.