1st table 160 WSOP DSO - Call or Fold?

MEJG2 · #1 03-02-2007, 10:56 AM

Sitting with a good chip lead at the 1st table of a 160 Double Shootout.

Villian has called a few of my raises and folded to c-bets. He pushes this time, do I call?

PokerStars Game #8696574489: Tournament #43908297, $150+$10 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level IV (50/100) - 2007/03/02 - 01:52:20 (ET)
Table '43908297 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button

UTG (t550)
UTG+1 (t465)
CO (t2701)
Button (t2735)
Hero (t4790)
BB (t2259)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to t300, BB calls t200

Flop: (t650) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t400, BB raises to t1959 (All-in), Hero?

Dazza1984 · #2 03-02-2007, 11:05 AM

Smells like KQ to me. Id prefer a slightly bigger bet on the flop 475-pot size. I fold here anyways. You still have a big stack and no point in gambling with 2nd pair.

blockafor · #3 03-02-2007, 11:35 AM

STTF?

I would fold this. Hero seems weak-tight. I don't think he's pushing a draw or any less than a pair of queens. I think it's too much of a risk to call this and give up your chip lead. If it wasn't an STT, then it'd be closer. nh, villain.

MEJG2 · #4 03-02-2007, 12:54 PM

Was not sure where to post it...

With this draw heavy board, how often is he protecting his hand vs. pushing the draw? Is having almost 2:1 even remotely tempting?

blockafor · #5 03-02-2007, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With this draw heavy board, how often is he protecting his hand vs. pushing the draw? Is having almost 2:1 even remotely tempting?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's protecting his hand here like 80-90% of the time. The question is whether he's protecting a hand like JT because he thinks you're too aggro and full of [censored]. 2:1 is tempting and your ace outs are clean, but I still think this is a fold.

Deadnutz · #6 03-02-2007, 02:02 PM

I think this is a close call and I think the 2 to 1 pot odds are extremely relevant. You need only 33% equity to make this call correct.

So, if you are behind, then you most likely still have 5 outs which gives you 20% equity. You only need to come up with 13% more equity to make this call. I think you see
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] enough to make this call. Say 70% of the time he has the Q and the other 30% he has a big draw. Then your hand equity would be:

(70% x 20%) + (30% x apprx. 55%)= 31%

So this is about your break even point. 70/30 is my defualt setting for draw heavy flops like this and I adjust it according to the player's style. More passive- 80/20,
more aggro 60/40.

I would lean towards calling since this is a DS and you HAVE to win the first table to make any money. Second means absolutely nothing.

I think the chips you win in this spot would add significantly to your chances of winning.