Democrats take both houses? Dare to dream ...

[Annies_Beaver]

Great article by the Washington Post:

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Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.

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Rep. Rahm Emamuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stopped short of predicting that Democrats will take the House, but said: "I'm playing defense in one or two districts and offense in 46. I like those odds. I'd rather be us than them."

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The Senate will be tough to take, but I look forward to the Republicans getting b-slapped in the House.

[jj_frap]

TN's out of play because racist Tennesseeans were offended by the way "uppity nigra" Harold Ford got in Bob Corker's face to deman a debate (God forbid we have debates in a society with democratic elections), but the Democrats will pick up seats in PA, RI, and OH. In addition they're narrow favourites in MT and VA as well as an even-money bet in MO.

On the other side of the aisle, I think Menendez has sown up NJ, but MD could end up being a very interesting race.

[Grey]

According to tradesports, it breaks down this way:

VA: 66% Dem
NJ: 90% Dem
MD: 75% Dem
TN: 10% Dem

So we're at 50 Democrats and 49 Republicans if everything breaks the way it's favored.

It comes down to Missouri, which has been almost exactly 50-50 in the polls and on betting sites the entire way.

[jj_frap]

I'd rather 50 Dems + Sanders to 51 Dems.

[Grey]

For intents and purposes Sanders is counted as a Dem. So is Lieberman. They're going to caucus with the Dems.

[candyman718]

There are too many toss up's in the Senate to think the Dems have a chance at the near sweep they need. All of a sudden Montana and Maryland have tightened up. Missouri and Virginia have been within the margin of error for weeks. There are even polls showing Rhode Island and Ohio getting tighter.

Once you assume a loss in Tennessee you need a sweep in all of the competetive races (assuming Arizona to be safe for the Republicans) to get to 51 seats. 50 seats means Cheney gets to break ties.

My guess as of right now is Dems will hold a 20 seat edge in the House and Senate will be 51-49 or 52-48 Rep.

[CharlieDontSurf]

Agreed

most polls are showing the race tightening...plus when you factor in the RNC's turnout machine...hopefully the Dems take the House...with the Democratic Party you never know...they could easily blow it.

I'll be surprised if they take the Senate...I see 4 seats.

[claudenm]

I wouldn't count on Lieberman caucusing with the Dems. He'll caucus with whomever gives him the best chairmanship, so we need a Lieberman-proof majority which is nearly impossible this cycle.

[jj_frap]

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I wouldn't count on Lieberman caucusing with the Dems. He'll caucus with whomever gives him the best chairmanship, so we need a Lieberman-proof majority which is nearly impossible this cycle.

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By nearly impossible, you mean that the Democrats will not have a Lieberman-proof majority without Harold Ford...And short of a major sex scandal coming out tomorrow (and given the absurd string of misfortunates that the GOP has suffered in recent months, I wouldn't put it past whoever the [censored] they pissed off to dig up something), Corker has the TN race sewn up, I'm sorry to say.

[candyman718]

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I wouldn't count on Lieberman caucusing with the Dems. He'll caucus with whomever gives him the best chairmanship, so we need a Lieberman-proof majority which is nearly impossible this cycle.

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This would really surprise me. He has said numerous times he won't switch.