One day left: NL playoff scenarios explained (it ain't simple)

[youtalkfunny]

Maybe this is common knowledge, but I had to search like hell to find it.

I know this much: four teams (NYM, PHL, SD, and COL) are fighting for the last two available spots. And it will take a miracle for all that to be sorted out WITHOUT having to throw in at least one playoff game to do so.

Mets and Phils each have 88 wins. Padres have 89, Rocks have 88. One of the Eastern teams will win the division; the other is still in Wild Card contention. Neither Western team can win their division (Arizona already clinched that).

One last thing: Forget "tie-breakers", like the Yankees and Red Sox used. Those can be used to determine the seeding for teams who have clinched play-off spots, but cannot be used to eliminate anyone.

Thanks to mlb.com for the following explanation:


Only the Padres control their own destiny. Beat the Brewers and they're in as the NL Wild Card. Everyone else will be doing an awful lot of scoreboard-watching, including the executives at Turner Broadcasting (who will carry any and all one-game playoffs).

If there's a four-way tie among the Mets, Phillies, Rockies and Pads:

• The Mets and Phillies would play in Philly on Monday to crown the East champ.

• The loser would then enter a three-game mini-tournament for which the Rockies, based on head-to-head records during the regular season, would have the option of trying to win at home and then on the road or just once on the road to advance.

• If the Rockies choose to stay home, their opponent would be determined by the wishes of the team with the second-best combined head-to-head record; it'd be the Phillies if they're involved, but the Padres if the Mets drop into the three-way. That team could choose to play at the Rockies on Tuesday, but it's more likely that it would opt for a single game and travel to play the winner of Tuesday's game on Wednesday.

• If the Rockies opt for the one road game, Tuesday's game would feature New York at San Diego, or San Diego at Philly, with the winner hosting Colorado on Wednesday.

If there's a three-way tie among the Padres, Mets and Phillies: This scenario is possible only if the Padres and Rockies both lose Sunday and the Phillies and Mets both win.

• The Mets and Phillies would play in Philly on Monday to crown the East champ.

• Monday's losing team would play Tuesday to decide the Wild Card. The Padres would either host the Phils, or travel to New York.

There also remains the possibility that there will be a pair of two-way ties needing to be broken, and they will be created only if the Rockies win Sunday and the Padres lose, while the Mets and Phillies both lose to end their Wild Card bids.

If the Mets and Phillies end up tied in the NL East: You already know this one; they'll play one game in Philly on Monday to crown the champ. And if you're wondering why the Phillies don't just get the division title based on their season-series victory over the Mets, it's because head-to-head tie-breakers are used only when both teams already have a playoff spot secured, and they simply determine seeding. Any regular-season tie that would send the loser home for the year has to be broken on the field.

If the Padres and Rockies finish in a tie for the Wild Card: A one-game playoff will be played Monday at Colorado.

Admit it: If your favorite team is already out of it, you're pulling for the four-way tie.

[craig]

From BP:

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Looks like the Diamondbacks took it easy after clinching earlier in the day, as Colorado rolled to a 11-1 win. That win keeps the possibility of a four-team tie, and it happens in 12.5% of the simulations - a 1 in 8 shot. There is now a 40% chance that a wild card playoff game will be needed, and a 20% chance that 3 or 4 teams will be involved. The Padres’ odds dropped to 75% on the result, with Colorado moving up to 12.8% and the Mets and Phillies even at 5.9%.

[/ QUOTE ]

craig

[nutshot2]

this is awesome.

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
this is awesome.

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For those of us who have open bets on the Padres and saw them blow a playoff berth when they were one strike away, I can assure you that it is anything but awesome.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
The loser would then enter a three-game mini-tournament for which the Rockies, based on head-to-head records during the regular season, would have the option of trying to win at home and then on the road or just once on the road to advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough decision. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think the choice would be between two games at home or one on the road.

[CardSharpCook]

There is also a 50/50 shot of an NL east game needing to be played.

[CardSharpCook]

hrm, I thought in the past the 163rd game counted as part of the season. Thusly, the loser of the NY/Phil game would be a 1/2 game back in the WC race.

And obv we're all rooting for a 4-way tie.

[chim17]

If Rocks have 88 wins and Mets/Phillies.. what if Rockies win, SD wins, and Mets/Phillies win? SD will clinch a wild card, Mets/Phils will have to playoff for the East. Why are the Rockies out of it then with the loser of the playoff also having 89 wins?

Same scenario could be said if everyone loses.

[HajiShirazu]

Because the playoff would be for the division only, and the rockies can't win the NL East.

[chim17]

[ QUOTE ]
Because the playoff would be for the division only, and the rockies can't win the NL East.

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I just woke up and I thought there were two wildcards lol.

Hangovers are bad.