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#1
12-27-2006, 12:01 AM
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($16) QQ fugly flop
is this just a horrible flop to bet?
I folded to the crai. PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t1515) UTG+1 (t1230) MP1 (t1180) MP2 (t1550) Hero (t1275) CO (t1350) Button (t1390) SB (t2200) BB (t1810) Preflop: Hero is in MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t50, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t200</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t150 Flop: (t475) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t1030 (All-in)</font> 
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#2
12-27-2006, 12:29 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
[ QUOTE ]
is this just a horrible flop to bet? [/ QUOTE ] This is just a horrible flop. When checked to I think I puke, then shove. 200 is just so small that it screams "shove on me and I'll run away!" Any more and you're crippling yourself.
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#3
12-27-2006, 12:35 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] is this just a horrible flop to bet? [/ QUOTE ] This is just a horrible flop. When checked to I think I puke, then shove. 200 is just so small that it screams "shove on me and I'll run away!" Any more and you're crippling yourself. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with a shove is that only hand that you have any chance of getting to fold is TP. If I were holding TP here, I wouldn't believe your push is representing a flush (or even a strong flush draw). So if I were sitting on TP here, Unless my kicker was crap, I'd call that push. I personally think you have to check behind, this flop contains too many ways you are beat, and the flush draw isn't something you are going to be able to effectively protect against. You have the added benefit that if he doesn't have the flush, he'll play you carefully because he's not sure if you are slowplaying. If you are going to c-bet, 250 is about right, but give up on the hand if you are raised. Fold to pretty much any bet on the turn if you are merely called.
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#4
12-27-2006, 12:43 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
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If you are going to c-bet, 250 is about right, but give up on the hand if you are raised. Fold to pretty much any bet on the turn if you are merely called. [/ QUOTE ] Curious hypothetical.... You make the 250 bet and are called. Pot's 975. Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villian leads 500....Hero?
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#5
12-27-2006, 01:14 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you are going to c-bet, 250 is about right, but give up on the hand if you are raised. Fold to pretty much any bet on the turn if you are merely called. [/ QUOTE ] Curious hypothetical.... You make the 250 bet and are called. Pot's 975. Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villian leads 500....Hero? [/ QUOTE ] In that situation I have to push based on two possibilities: A) Villain doesn't have a flush yet B) Villain does have a flush, but you now have 10 outs on the river to outdraw him.
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#6
12-27-2006, 01:14 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you are going to c-bet, 250 is about right, but give up on the hand if you are raised. Fold to pretty much any bet on the turn if you are merely called. [/ QUOTE ] Curious hypothetical.... You make the 250 bet and are called. Pot's 975. Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villian leads 500....Hero? [/ QUOTE ] then you shove really really really easily open shoving is weird here, just bet out a c-bet and fold to more action generally
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#7
12-27-2006, 01:44 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
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B) Villain does have a flush, but you now have 10 outs on the river to outdraw him. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly where I was heading with this. Now say it goes like this.... You make the 250 bet and are called. Pot's 975. Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villian leads 500....Hero still make the call with 10 outs and the CHANCE villian is just representing? (obviously the odds don't get you there if you're positive about the flush, but they're close. Does the chance give you the extra edge you need?) (p.s. sorry for the hijack)
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#8
12-27-2006, 10:12 AM
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Re: ($16) QQ fugly flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] B) Villain does have a flush, but you now have 10 outs on the river to outdraw him. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly where I was heading with this. Now say it goes like this.... You make the 250 bet and are called. Pot's 975. Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villian leads 500....Hero still make the call with 10 outs and the CHANCE villian is just representing? (obviously the odds don't get you there if you're positive about the flush, but they're close. Does the chance give you the extra edge you need?) (p.s. sorry for the hijack) [/ QUOTE ] If the turn was Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] it's very likely you're ahead of villain's TP/TP+FD. If the turn is Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're very likely behind drawing to those 10 outs. I might still push the turn getting 2.3:1 but I wouldn't like it and it would be more about not wanting to play with t800 stack.
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