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#31
04-18-2007, 12:42 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
k i read only bobbo's response so far but at first glance I dont like it. Diablo wrote in one of his well posts that he basically the discounts the PFR as ever having a flush (now there might have been some caveats- like HU flopping a flush or something like that) however, I have taken this to mean that the PFR raiser NEVER has a flush, ever when they are betting 3 streets. Based on this incredibly flawed theorem I insta-call with any queen...
On a serious note tho, when the PFR leads into a multiway pot I always weight their range far more heavily towards overpairs/sets/top pair/ bluffs rather than to the various open ended straight and flush draws present. The problem with river is that you arent value betting AA KK AQ here, so that leaves mostly bluffs/2pair/sets in ur range. Also, he may be looking down at AQ or KQ and realize he has blockers which weights ur range even more to JJ/flush/air. I would actually like this better if you pot turn, as he is going to be in raise/fold mode with his 8 or 9 out draws and so if he calls you can put him more squarely on a mediocre made hand, and your turn bet also fits with a DB flush draw or value bet with a set, which makes a river call much more difficult for him when the flush hits. Note: I see mediocre tags at 600nl calling 3/4ish PSB with 8 or 9 out draws all the time... 
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#32
04-18-2007, 12:52 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
[ QUOTE ]
villain is 20/13 over 50 hands. seems standard TAG Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $589.50 BB: $795.25 <font color="black">Hero (UTG): $900</font> CO: $1206.70 BTN: $570 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, BTN calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $54, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $144</font>, BTN calls $144 <font color="black">River:</font> ($471) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $360</font> [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think that if you bet that much on the river villain can't put you on AA or KK here? I believe if you would have AA or KK here you would actually try to check call or make donk bet on the river instead of betting that much. Might even seem like you have busted AK here...
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#33
04-18-2007, 12:55 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
if villain is good enough to recognize what he's repping and that you're good enough to read him for it, he should be able to see that your bet is pretty big and that he probably doesnt want a call.
but those are some strong assumptions against your average player, and i presume you also mix up your river bet sizes anyhow, or at least you should.
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#34
04-18-2007, 01:07 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] villain is 20/13 over 50 hands. seems standard TAG Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $589.50 BB: $795.25 <font color="black">Hero (UTG): $900</font> CO: $1206.70 BTN: $570 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, BTN calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $54, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $144</font>, BTN calls $144 <font color="black">River:</font> ($471) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $360</font> [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think that if you bet that much on the river villain can't put you on AA or KK here? I believe if you would have AA or KK here you would actually try to check call or make donk bet on the river instead of betting that much. Might even seem like you have busted AK here... [/ QUOTE ] i would never check call this river with AA/KK I stated earlier that my range for villain was extremely centered on one pair. Look at the way the hand played out. He doesnt have more than one pair very often (like RARELY). I shove river here with AA KK and AQ all day (I have to since I make bluffs like this as well)
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#35
04-18-2007, 01:14 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] villain is 20/13 over 50 hands. seems standard TAG Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $589.50 BB: $795.25 <font color="black">Hero (UTG): $900</font> CO: $1206.70 BTN: $570 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, BTN calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $54, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $144</font>, BTN calls $144 <font color="black">River:</font> ($471) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $360</font> [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think that if you bet that much on the river villain can't put you on AA or KK here? I believe if you would have AA or KK here you would actually try to check call or make donk bet on the river instead of betting that much. Might even seem like you have busted AK here... [/ QUOTE ] i would never check call this river with AA/KK I stated earlier that my range for villain was extremely centered on one pair. Look at the way the hand played out. He doesnt have more than one pair very often (like RARELY). I shove river here with AA KK and AQ all day (I have to since I make bluffs like this as well) [/ QUOTE ] This is probably irrelevant to the hand and maybe obvious, but if you shove the river w/ AA, KK, and AQ like you say then villain can profitably call the turn w/ a flush draw. If villain knows this then you can't put him strictly on a 1 pair hand like you did. I really doubt this is the case but nevertheless if you shove AA, KK, and AQ, I don't think you can automatically discount a flush. Edit: This of course is dependent on your bluffing frequency as well, so it may not matter.
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#36
04-18-2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] villain is 20/13 over 50 hands. seems standard TAG Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $589.50 BB: $795.25 <font color="black">Hero (UTG): $900</font> CO: $1206.70 BTN: $570 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, BTN calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $54, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $144</font>, BTN calls $144 <font color="black">River:</font> ($471) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $360</font> [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think that if you bet that much on the river villain can't put you on AA or KK here? I believe if you would have AA or KK here you would actually try to check call or make donk bet on the river instead of betting that much. Might even seem like you have busted AK here... [/ QUOTE ] i would never check call this river with AA/KK I stated earlier that my range for villain was extremely centered on one pair. Look at the way the hand played out. He doesnt have more than one pair very often (like RARELY). I shove river here with AA KK and AQ all day (I have to since I make bluffs like this as well) [/ QUOTE ] This is probably irrelevant to the hand and maybe obvious, but if you shove the river w/ AA, KK, and AQ like you say then villain can profitably call the turn w/ a flush draw. If villain knows this then you can't put him strictly on a 1 pair hand like you did. I really doubt this is the case but nevertheless if you shove AA, KK, and AQ, I don't think you can automatically discount a flush. Edit: This of course is dependent on your bluffing frequency as well, so it may not matter. [/ QUOTE ] this isn't true
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#38
04-18-2007, 02:15 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] villain is 20/13 over 50 hands. seems standard TAG Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $589.50 BB: $795.25 <font color="black">Hero (UTG): $900</font> CO: $1206.70 BTN: $570 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, BTN calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $54, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $144</font>, BTN calls $144 <font color="black">River:</font> ($471) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $360</font> [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think that if you bet that much on the river villain can't put you on AA or KK here? I believe if you would have AA or KK here you would actually try to check call or make donk bet on the river instead of betting that much. Might even seem like you have busted AK here... [/ QUOTE ] i would never check call this river with AA/KK I stated earlier that my range for villain was extremely centered on one pair. Look at the way the hand played out. He doesnt have more than one pair very often (like RARELY). I shove river here with AA KK and AQ all day (I have to since I make bluffs like this as well) [/ QUOTE ] This is probably irrelevant to the hand and maybe obvious, but if you shove the river w/ AA, KK, and AQ like you say then villain can profitably call the turn w/ a flush draw. If villain knows this then you can't put him strictly on a 1 pair hand like you did. I really doubt this is the case but nevertheless if you shove AA, KK, and AQ, I don't think you can automatically discount a flush. Edit: This of course is dependent on your bluffing frequency as well, so it may not matter. [/ QUOTE ] this isn't true [/ QUOTE ] Because you bluff the river enough or because your turn betting range is wide enough? Care to explain
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#39
04-18-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: 3/6 bluff check
I didn't really put a lot of thought into this. If your betting a wide range on the turn (oesd, mid pair, etc) then he won't have the odds for a flush draw because you will be c/f a lot of those hands on the river? Is that correct?
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